IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jqecon/v17y2019i3d10.1007_s40953-018-0136-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Ranjan Kumar Mohanty

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit in India for the period from 1970–1971 to 2013–2014. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to analyze the long run and short run relationship between the twin deficits. The results support the validity of twin deficits hypothesis in India, both in the short run and long run. Policy makers should adopt various measures to control fiscal deficit for correcting the current account deficit in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:17:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-018-0136-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-018-0136-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-018-0136-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40953-018-0136-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene Kouassi & Mbodja Mougoué & Kern O. Kymn, 2004. "Causality tests of the relationship between the twin deficits," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 503-525, September.
    2. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2015. "“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 302-330, October.
    3. Bhavani, T.A. & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2012. "Financial Access in Post-Reform India," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198076650.
    4. Ashok Parikh & Bill Rao, 2006. "“Do Fiscal Deficits Influence Current Accounts? A Case Study of India”," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 492-505, August.
    5. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    6. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-381, August.
    7. Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2000. "The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 535-550.
    8. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    11. Aviral Kumar TIWARI & Suresh K G & Mihai MUTAȘCU, 2015. "A Structural VAR analysis of Fiscal shocks on current accounts in Greece," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 5-20, Autumn.
    12. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    13. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    14. Abell, John D., 1990. "Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-96.
    15. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    16. Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008. "Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
    17. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
    18. HARJIT K. Arora & PAMI Dua, 1993. "Budget Deficits, Domestic Investment, And Trade Deficits," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 29-44, January.
    19. Olugbenga A. Onafowora & Oluwole OwoyeAuthor-Workplace-Name: Susquehana University, USA, 2006. "An empirical investigation of budget and trade deficits: the case of Nigeria," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 39(2), pages 153-174, January-M.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    21. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran & Saroja Selvanathan & Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan, 2016. "The twin deficits hypothesis in the SAARC countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 77-90, January.
    22. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
    23. Sobrino, César R, 2013. "The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: A short-run analysis of Peru," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 18(34), pages 9-15.
    24. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    25. Ghatak, Anita & Ghatak, Subrata, 1996. "Budgetary deficits and Ricardian equivalence: The case of India, 1950-1986," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 267-282, May.
    26. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    28. Anita Ghatak & Subrata Ghatak, "undated". "Budgetary Deficits and Ricardian Equivalence: The Case of India, 1950-1986," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 96/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    29. Ahmed M. Khalid & Teo Wee Guan, 1999. "Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 389-402.
    30. Artatrana Ratha, 2012. "Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India1," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(1), pages 51-68, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Sarmad Jadoon & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Relevance of twin deficit hypothesis in the presence of structural breaks: an evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3305-3320, August.
    2. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & James Temitope Dada & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Modelling asymmetric structure in the finance-poverty nexus: empirical insights from an emerging market economy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 453-487, February.
    3. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    2. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    3. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    4. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    8. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2016. "Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post-communist countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    10. Mallick, Lingaraj & Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Murthy, R.V. Ramana, 2021. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Artatrana Ratha, 2012. "Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India1," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(1), pages 51-68, March.
    12. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    13. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    14. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    15. Bilman, Mustafa Erhan & Karaoğlan, Sadık, 2020. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 205-215.
    16. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    18. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:17:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-018-0136-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.