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Relevance of twin deficit hypothesis in the presence of structural breaks: an evidence from Pakistan

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Listed:
  • Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah

    (Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Sarmad Jadoon

    (COMSATS University Islamabad)

  • Muhammad Asim Afridi

    (COMSATS University Islamabad)

Abstract

Pakistan experienced consistent rise in budget deficit and current account deficit that dampened the country’s abilities to achieve sustained economic growth over the last several years. To this aim, this study intends to investigate the existence of twin deficit hypothesis in the presence structural breaks over the last four decades. Utilizing time series data for the years 1980–2019 and employing Zivot-Andrew unit root test, ADF, PP and ARDL approaches, we find that budget deficit being statistically significant in the short-run and long-run positively affect the current account deficit of the country. The effects are unaltered when we run regression with structural break and without structural breaks. The study, thus, confirms the presence of twin deficit hypothesis in both the short-run and long-run periods in case of Pakistan. Thus, a consistent, well devised and prudent fiscal policy help alleviate the current account deficit of Pakistan over the last four decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Sarmad Jadoon & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Relevance of twin deficit hypothesis in the presence of structural breaks: an evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3305-3320, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:57:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-022-01511-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01511-9
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