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Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries

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  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan
  • Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir
  • Martin, Christopher

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit using the threshold cointegration approach of Hansen and Seo (2002). Using quarterly data for nine African countries for the period 1980–2009, a long-run positive cointegrating relationship is established for six out of the nine countries examined, while the relationship is negative for the other three. This provides qualified support for the twin convergence hypothesis. Threshold error correction effects show some diversity in the speed of adjustment of the current account relative to the speed of adjustment of the fiscal deficit. This may be a reflection of differences in the way fiscal policy issues are handled across the countries.

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  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir & Martin, Christopher, 2015. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 80-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:80-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2015.03.001
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    2. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    4. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.
    5. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Olalekan Bashir Aworinde, 2021. "Fiscal and External Deficits Nexus in GIIPS Countries: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Causality Tests," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 171-184, August.
    6. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    7. Gaysset, Isabelle & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2019. "Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-116.
    8. Bilman, Mustafa Erhan & Karaoğlan, Sadık, 2020. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 205-215.
    9. Mawejje, Joseph & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 55-70.
    10. Mallick, Lingaraj & Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Murthy, R.V. Ramana, 2021. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
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    13. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.
    14. Hammad Manzoor & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Rashid Mehmood & Muhammad Ali Rizwan, 2019. "A Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 117-131, September.
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    16. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

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