IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/macfem/v7y2014i1p140-153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Structural VAR (SVAR) analysis of fiscal shocks on current accounts in India

Author

Listed:
  • Suresh K.G.
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

Abstract

The stimulus packages announced to deal with the economic slowdown has increased the fiscal deficit of many countries and it spurred the debate on the possible effect of these fiscal shocks on other economic variable especially the current account. In this study, we examine the effect of fiscal deficit on current account of India using the VAR as well as the Structural VAR (SVAR) analysis. Our analysis indicates that the fiscal deficit is positively affecting the current account deficit in India, as predicted by the twin deficit hypothesis. Therefore, the historical data indicates the presence of the twin deficits phenomenon in Indian context.

Suggested Citation

  • Suresh K.G. & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2014. "A Structural VAR (SVAR) analysis of fiscal shocks on current accounts in India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 140-153, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:7:y:2014:i:1:p:140-153
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2013.828764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17520843.2013.828764
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/17520843.2013.828764?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-381, August.
    2. Abell, John D., 1990. "Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-96.
    3. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    4. Sylvia Kaufmann & Georg Winckler & Johann Scharler, 2002. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 529-542.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "A structural VAR analysis of electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2765-2769, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2018. "The effect of oil shocks and cyclicality in hiding Indian twin deficits," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(1), pages 27-45, January.
    2. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    3. Emerson JACKSON & Mohamed JABBIE, 2020. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis as an Indication of Government Failure in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Investigation (1980-2018)," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 42-68, January.
    4. Mallick, Lingaraj & Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Murthy, R.V. Ramana, 2021. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Fiscal policy and macroeconomic effects: structural macroeconometric model and simulation analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 81-105, June.
    6. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    2. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    3. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "60%, -4% And 6%, a Tale of Thresholds for EU Fiscal and Current Account Developments," EconPol Working Paper 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Sarah El-Khishin & Jailan El-Saeed, 2021. "The Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Do Geopolitics Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, September.
    6. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The EMU Experience of Portugal," EconPol Working Paper 68, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0208, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    11. Bilman, Mustafa Erhan & Karaoğlan, Sadık, 2020. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 205-215.
    12. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    13. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    14. Aviral Kumar TIWARI & Suresh K G & Mihai MUTAȘCU, 2015. "A Structural VAR analysis of Fiscal shocks on current accounts in Greece," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 5-20, Autumn.
    15. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    17. Idil UZ, 2010. "DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: The Relation between Internal and External Balances in Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    18. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
    20. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577-592.
    21. Ahmad Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed Khalid, 2006. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis using VARs and Variance Decomposition," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 331-354.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:7:y:2014:i:1:p:140-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.