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A Statistical Profiling Model of Long-Term Unemployment Risk in Ireland

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Author Info

  • O'Connell, Philip J.
  • McGuinness, Seamus
  • Kelly, Elish

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical profiling model of long-term unemployment risk in Ireland using a combination of administrative data and information gathered from a unique questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making a social welfare claim between September and December 2006 who were then tracked for eighteen months. We find that factors such as a recent history of long-term unemployment, advanced age, number of children, relatively low levels of education, literacy/numeracy problems, location in urban areas, lack of personal transport, low rates of recent labour market engagement, spousal earnings and geographic location all significantly impact the likelihood of remaining unemployed for 12 months or more. While the predicted probability distribution for males was found to be relatively normal, the female distribution was bimodal, indicating that larger proportions of females were at risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We find evidence that community based employment schemes for combating long-term unemployment have little effect as participants re-entering the register typically experience extended durations. Finally, we argue that the adoption of an unemployment profiling system will result in both equity and efficiency gains to Public Employment Services.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP345.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp345

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Related research

Keywords: Ireland/Long-term Unemployment/risk/Statistical Profiling/children/transport/employment;

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References

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  1. Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael & Steiger, Heidi, 2003. "Statistically assisted programme selection - International experiences and potential benefits for Switzerland," Working Paper Series 2004:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  2. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," IZA Discussion Papers 728, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  4. Fahr, René & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up Job Creation? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," IZA Discussion Papers 2470, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-09, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. ESRI: Profiling Long-Term Unemployment Risk
    by Liam Delaney in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2011-01-17 01:23:00
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Cited by:
  1. Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk Among Young People: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP394, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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