A Statistical Profiling Model of Long-Term Unemployment Risk in Ireland
AbstractThis paper develops a statistical profiling model of long-term unemployment risk in Ireland using a combination of administrative data and information gathered from a unique questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making a social welfare claim between September and December 2006 who were then tracked for eighteen months. We find that factors such as a recent history of long-term unemployment, advanced age, number of children, relatively low levels of education, literacy/numeracy problems, location in urban areas, lack of personal transport, low rates of recent labour market engagement, spousal earnings and geographic location all significantly impact the likelihood of remaining unemployed for 12 months or more. While the predicted probability distribution for males was found to be relatively normal, the female distribution was bimodal, indicating that larger proportions of females were at risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We find evidence that community based employment schemes for combating long-term unemployment have little effect as participants re-entering the register typically experience extended durations. Finally, we argue that the adoption of an unemployment profiling system will result in both equity and efficiency gains to Public Employment Services.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP345.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Ireland/Long-term Unemployment/risk/Statistical Profiling/children/transport/employment;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2010-05-29 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-URE-2010-05-29 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael & Steiger, Heidi, 2003.
"Statistically assisted programme selection - International experiences and potential benefits for Switzerland,"
Working Paper Series
2004:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
- Michael Lechner & Jeffrey Smith, 2003.
"What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003
2003-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Michael Lechner & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20031, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
- Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," IZA Discussion Papers 728, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006.
"Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006
2006-09, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
- Fahr, René & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up Job Creation? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," IZA Discussion Papers 2470, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- ESRI: Profiling Long-Term Unemployment Risk
by Liam Delaney in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2011-01-17 01:23:00
- Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk Among Young People: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP394, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.