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Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk Among Young People: Evidence from Ireland

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  • Kelly, Elish
  • McGuinness, Seamus
  • O'Connell, Philip J.

Abstract

Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed (OECD, 2009). Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is known about the factors associated with long-term unemployment risk for those youths that become unemployed. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by identifying the characteristics associated with young peoples' long-term unemployment risk in Ireland. The research, which is conducted using multivariate statistical analysis, uses a combination of unemployment register data and information gathered from a specially designed claimant questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making an unemployment benefit claim between September and December 2006. The results indicate that factors such as a recent history of long-term unemployment, a lack of basic literacy/numeracy skills and low levels of educational attainment, all have a significant impact on the likelihood that young people will remain unemployed for 12 months or more. A number of attributes are gender specific, such as the presence of children, additional welfare benefits and spousal earnings for females, and apprenticeship training and participation in a public sector job creation scheme for males. Comparisons with the characteristics associated with older welfare claimants long-term unemployment risk, reveal some interesting difference between younger and older unemployed individuals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP394.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp394

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Keywords: children/data/Gender/Individuals/Ireland/Long-term Unemployment/risk/school to work/skills/unemployment;

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References

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  1. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20102, March.
  2. Juan F. Jimeno & Diego Rodríguez-Palenzuela, 2003. "Youth Unemployment in the OECD: Demographic Shifts, Labour Market Institutions and Macroeconomic Shocks," Economics Working Papers 019, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  3. Rick Audas & Eva Berde & Peter Dolton, 2005. "Youth unemployment and labour market transitions in Hungary," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-25.
  4. Prem J. Thapa, 2004. "On the risk of unemployment: a comparative assessment of the labour market success of migrants in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(2), pages 199-229, June.
  5. Muller, Walter & Gangl, Markus (ed.), 2003. "Transitions from Education to Work in Europe: The Integration of Youth into EU Labour Markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199252473, October.
  6. Glenda Quintini & Sébastien Martin, 2006. "Starting Well or Losing their Way?: The Position of Youth in the Labour Market in OECD Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 39, OECD Publishing.
  7. James Obben & Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & V. Wesley Thompson, 2002. "A logit model of the incidence of long-term unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 43-46.
  8. John P Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries' Experiences," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Bettina Isengard, 2002. "Youth Unemployment: Individual Risk Factors and Institutional Determinants: A Case Study of Germany and the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 284, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Harris, Mark N, 1996. "Modelling the Probability of Youth Unemployment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 118-29, June.
  11. Duncan McVicar & Michael Anyadike-Danes, 2002. "Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 317-334.
  12. Ilias Livanos, 2007. "The incidence of long-term unemployment: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 405-408.
  13. O'Connell, Philip J. & McGuinness, Seamus & Kelly, Elish, 2010. "A Statistical Profiling Model of Long-Term Unemployment Risk in Ireland," Papers WP345, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Brady, Gerard, 2013. "Network social capital and labour market outcomes Evidence from Ireland," MPRA Paper 47391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J. & Haugh, David & Pandiella, Alberto González, 2013. "Transitions In and Out of Unemployment Among Young People in the Irish Recession," Papers WP466, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Conefrey, Thomas & McCarthy, Yvonne & Sherman, Martina, 2013. "Re-employment Probabilities for Unemployed Workers in Ireland," Economic Letters 06/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  4. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2012. "Literacy, Numeracy and Activation among the Unemployed," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS25.

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