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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

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  • Michael Rosholm
  • Jonas Staghøj
  • Michael Svarer

    ()
    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2007-16.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2007-16

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: Profiling; Targeting; Statistical Treatment Rules; Heterogeneous Effects;

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References

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  1. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
  2. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
  3. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  4. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
  5. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Time and Causality: A Monte Carlo Assessment of the Timing-of-Events Approach," Memorandum 19/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Charles Manski, 2003. "Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2007. "What is the value added by caseworkers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-151, April.
  8. Markus Frölich, 2006. "Statistical Treatment Choice: An Application to Active Labour Market Programmes," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-14, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  9. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 12574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2005. "Passenger Profiling, Imperfect Screening, and Airport Security," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey, 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535, October.
  12. Bell, Stephen H. & Orr, Larry L., 2002. "Screening (and creaming?) applicants to job training programs: the AFDC homemaker-home health aide demonstrations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 279-301, April.
  13. Christopher J. O'Leary & Paul Decker & Stephen A. Wandner, 2002. "Targeting Reemployment Bonuses," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 3005, Mathematica Policy Research.
  14. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December.
  15. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer & Bo Hammer, 2004. "A Danish Profiling System," Economics Working Papers 2004-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  16. Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2004. "Estimating the Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," IZA Discussion Papers 1300, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. William C. Horrace & Peter Schmidt, 2000. "Multiple comparisons with the best, with economic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  18. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
  19. Stephan, Gesine & Rässler, Susanne & Schewe, Torben, 2006. "Wirkungsanalyse in der Bundesagentur für Arbeit : Konzeption, Datenbasis und ausgewählte Befunde," IAB Discussion Paper 200607, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  20. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Profiling: Introduction to the Feature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages F347-F350, November.
  21. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
  23. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  24. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  25. Torben M. Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2007. "Flexicurity: Labour Market Performance in Denmark," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(3), pages 389-429, September.
  26. Peter Jensen & Michael Svarer, 2003. "Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, January.
  27. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kyyrä, Tomi & Parrotta, Pierpaolo & Rosholm, Michael, 2013. "The effect of receiving supplementary UI benefits on unemployment duration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 122-133.
  2. Behncke, Stefanie & Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael, 2007. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from A Randomised Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Torben Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2008. "Flexicurity in Denmark," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 15-20, December.
  4. Weber, Andrea, 2008. "Individual Incentives in Program Participation: Splitting up the Process in Assignment and Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 3404, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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