IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esj/esridp/003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Premiums and Exchange Rate Expectations: A Reassessment of the So-Called Dollar Peg Policies of Crisis East Asian Countries, 1994-97

Author

Listed:
  • TAKAGI Shinji
  • ESAKA Taro

Abstract

We use an unobserved components model to extract the foreign exchange risk premium from the excess ex post returns of East Asian currency assets over US dollar assets and derive the implied expected future spot rates of East Asian currencies against the US dollar. Empirical results, obtained from monthly data on the crisis East Asian countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and Thailand for the period January 1994-June 1997, generally indicate that the risk premium was substantial and time-varying and that market participants consistently formed expectations of either appreciation or depreciation over the coming month. The presence of a risk premium means that East Asian currency assets and US dollar assets were imperfect substitutes, so that sterilization was effective. The expectations of short-term depreciation or appreciation suggest that the so-called dollar peg policies were not credible. JEL Classification: F31, F32, F33, O53

Suggested Citation

  • TAKAGI Shinji & ESAKA Taro, 2001. "Risk Premiums and Exchange Rate Expectations: A Reassessment of the So-Called Dollar Peg Policies of Crisis East Asian Countries, 1994-97," ESRI Discussion paper series 003, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis003/e_dis003a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    4. Shinji Takagi, 1999. "The Yen and Its East Asian Neighbors 1980-1995: Cooperation or Competition?," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 185-210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 3, pages 59-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
    8. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1991. "Premia in forward foreign exchange as unobserved components," Other publications TiSEM f9309525-e1b8-46ad-8760-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386768, December.
    10. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1, March.
    11. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    12. Shinji Takagi & Taro Esaka, 2001. "Sterilization and the Capital Inflow Problem in East Asia, 1987-97," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 197-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    14. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1, March.
    15. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386737, December.
    16. Wolff, Christian C. P., 2000. "Measuring the forward foreign exchange risk premium: multi-country evidence from unobserved components models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, January.
    17. Fane, George & McLeod, Ross H., 1999. "Lessons for monetary and banking policies from the 1997-98 economic crises in Indonesia and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 395-413.
    18. Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-377.
    19. Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1993. "Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange as Unobserved Components: A Note," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 361-365, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
    2. Bams, Dennis & Walkowiak, Kim & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2004. "More evidence on the dollar risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 271-282, March.
    3. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.
    4. Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-377.
    5. Ying, Yung-Hsiang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Tung, Chris Y. & Chang, Koyin, 2013. "“Capital mobility in East Asian Countries is not so high”: Examining the impact of sterilization on capital flows," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 55-64.
    6. Aziz Chouikh & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2014. "The Determinants of Risk Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 19-28, April.
    7. Wolff, Christian C. P., 2000. "Measuring the forward foreign exchange risk premium: multi-country evidence from unobserved components models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, January.
    8. Groen, Jan J.J. & Balakrishnan, Ravi, 2006. "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, February.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    10. Campbell-Pownall, R.A.J. & Koedijk, C.G. & Lothian, J.R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-088-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
    12. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. J. D. Byers & D. A. Peel, 2001. "Volatility persistence in asset markets: long memory in high/low prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 253-260.
    14. Lothian, James R. & Koedijk, Kees & Mahieu, Ronald & Campbell, Rachel, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    16. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March.
    17. Nelson Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2003. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market," NBER Working Papers 9948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    19. Delcoure, Natalya & Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, May.
    20. Naka, Atsuyuki & Whitney, Gerald, 1995. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis re-examined," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 857-867, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    East Asian currency crisis; exchange rate policy in East Asia; foreign exchange risk premium; unobserved components models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HORI nobuko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.