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The dynamics and inequality of Italian male earnings: permanent changes or transitory fluctuations?

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  • Cappellari, Lorenzo

Abstract

This paper looks at longitudinal aspects of changes in Italian male earnings inequality since the late 1970s by decomposing the earnings autocovariance structure into its persistent and transitory parts. Cross-sectional earnings differentials are found to grow over the period. The longitudinal analysis shows that such growth is determined by the permanent earnings component and is due both to a divergence of earnings profiles over the working career and an increase in overall persistence during the first half of the 1990s. Using these estimates to analyse low pay probabilities shows that it became more persistent for all birth cohorts; consequently, the probability of repeated low pay episodes also increased during the sample period. When allowing for occupation-specific components in the parameters of interest, life time earnings divergence is found to characterise the non-manual earnings distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series ISER Working Paper Series with number 2000-41.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2000
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Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2000-41

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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
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  1. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1994. "The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 217-272.
  2. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-81, September.
  3. Christopher Erickson & Andrea Ichino, 1995. "Wage Differentials in Italy: Market Forces, Institutions, and Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Differences and Changes in Wage Structures, pages 265-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
  5. Lee A. Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Dynamic Aspects of Earnings Mobility," NBER Working Papers 0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Institutional Changes and Rising Wage Inequality: Is There a Linkage?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 75-96, Spring.
  7. Peter Gottschalk & Timothy M. Smeeding, 1997. "Cross-National Comparisons of Earnings and Income Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 633-687, June.
  8. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-75, April.
  9. George E. Johnson, 1997. "Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Role of Demand Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 41-54, Spring.
  10. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  11. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March.
  12. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality And Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640, May.
  13. Christopher J. Flinn, 2002. "Labour Market Structure and Inequality: A Comparison of Italy and the U.S," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 611-645.
  14. Lucio Baccaro, 2000. "Centralized collective bargaining and the problem of "compliance": Lessons from the Italian experience," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(4), pages 579-601, July.
  15. Hause, John C, 1980. "The Fine Structure of Earnings and the On-the-Job Training Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1013-29, May.
  16. Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1995. "Differences and Changes in Wage Structures," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number free95-1.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michal Myck & Richard Ochmann & Salmai Qari, 2008. "Dynamics of Earnings and Hourly Wages in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 139, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  2. Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Andrea Borgarello & Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "What Accounts For the Rise in Wage Inequality in Italy? Evidence from Administrative Matched Employer-Employee Data, 1985-1996," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 18, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  4. R. Alessie & A.S. Kalwij, 2003. "Permanent and transitory wage inequality of British men, 1975-2001: year, age and cohort effects," Working Papers 03-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
  5. Anna M. Falzoni & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 2004. "Wage Differentials and International Trade in Italy Using Individual Micro Data 1991-1996," Development Working Papers 190, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  6. Martin Biewen, 2002. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 292, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. repec:ese:iserwp:2007-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Dahlberg, Matz & Gustavsson, Magnus, 2005. "Inequality and crime: separating the effects of permanent and transitory income," Working Paper Series 2005:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  9. Zhao, Zhong, 2007. "Earnings Instability and Earnings Inequality in Urban China: 1989–2006," IZA Discussion Papers 3270, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Gustavsson, Magnus, 2004. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Earnings: Evidence from Sweden 1960-1990 and a Comparison with the United States," Working Paper Series 2004:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  11. Cervini-Plá, María & Ramos, Xavi, 2008. "Long Term Earnings Inequality, Earnings Instability and Temporary Employment in Spain: 1993–2000," IZA Discussion Papers 3538, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Anna M. Falzoni & Alessandra Venturini & Claudia Villosio, 2007. "Skilled and Unskilled Wage Dynamics in Italy in the ‘90s: Changes in the individual characteristics, institutions, trade and technology," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 61, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  13. Xavi Ramos & Christian Schluter, 2003. "Subjective Income Expectations, Canonical Models and Income Risk," Working Papers wpdea0310, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  14. Heshmati, Almas, 2004. "A Review of Decomposition of Income Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 1221, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Ramos, Xavi & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. repec:ese:iserwp:2001-15 is not listed on IDEAS

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