IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/epa/cepawp/2022-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dominant Currency Shocks and Foreign Exchange Pressure in the Periphery

Author

Abstract

The paper assesses the effects of dominant currency shocks (strong US dollar) on emerging markets by studying exchange market pressure (EMP) or foreign exchange (FX) liquidity, GDP growth, external debt, and inflation. The literature emphasizes inflation passthrough, trade volume and GDP growth contraction in the periphery following a strong dollar. Comparing the dollar shock with euro and commodity price shocks and employing pooled mean group estimates and panel VAR across regimes of trade invoicing, this paper shows that bilateral depreciation can decrease FX liquidity and GDP growth in the periphery, failing to achieve the conventional macroeconomic adjustments of a competitive depreciation. A strong dollar reduces external debt, but strong euro has the opposite effect, implying circumvention of the ‘original sin.' An EMP, FX liquidity, shock from the periphery appreciates the US dollar, affirming dollar's safehaven status. These findings have implications for balance of payments and exchange rate policy management.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Dominant Currency Shocks and Foreign Exchange Pressure in the Periphery," SCEPA working paper series. 2022-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2022-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/images/docs/research/nssr_working_papers/2022_03_Dominant_currency_shocks.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    3. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    4. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2019. "Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2390-2412, May.
    5. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Goldberg, Linda & Tille, Cédric, 2009. "Macroeconomic interdependence and the international role of the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 990-1003, October.
    7. Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 220-232.
    8. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    9. Guo, Dong & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "The rise of a new anchor currency in RCEP? A tale of three currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Wang, Xiangning & Zhao, Xing, 2014. "The invoicing currency choice model of export enterprises assuming joint utility maximization and analysis of the factors influencing selection," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-42.
    13. David Fields & Mat�as Vernengo, 2013. "Hegemonic currencies during the crisis: The dollar versus the euro in a Cartalist perspective," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 740-759, August.
    14. Patnaik, Ila & Felman, Joshua & Shah, Ajay, 2017. "An exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 62-77.
    15. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven, 2016. "Assessing Recent Determinants of Borrowing Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 721-738, November.
    16. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2014/039, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    18. Vessela Todorova, 2020. "Safe Haven Currencies," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 579-591, December.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    20. A. Sepehri & S. Moshiri & M. Doudongee, 2000. "The Foreign Exchange Constraints to Economic Adjustment: The case of Iran," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 235-251.
    21. Montfaucon, Angella Faith & Sato, Kiyotaka & Shrestha, Nagendra & Parsons, Craig, 2021. "Exchange rate pass-through and invoicing currency choice between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes: Evidence from Malawi’s transaction-level data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 562-577.
    22. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    23. Barry Eichengreen, 2021. "Bretton Woods After 50," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 552-569, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Devendra Kumar Jain & Naqeeb Ur-Rehman & Omonjon Ganiev & Kapil Arora, 2023. "Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies: an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara Schuster & Siavash Radpour, 2022. "No "Great Resignation" for Older Workers- Mass Job Loss Drove the Retirement Surge," SCEPA publication series. 2022-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Devendra Kumar Jain & Naqeeb Ur-Rehman & Omonjon Ganiev & Kapil Arora, 2023. "Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies: an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Eli Direye & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Central bank securities and foreign exchange market intervention in a developing economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 280-297, February.
    4. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2019. "Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2390-2412, May.
    5. Aftab, Muhammad & Phylaktis, Kate, 2022. "Economic integration and exchange market pressure in a policy uncertain world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Suman Das & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2021. "Predicting regime switching in BRICS currency volatility: a Markov switching autoregressive approach," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 165-180, June.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Juan Yepez, 2018. "No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect," IMF Working Papers 2018/213, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Kunovac, Davor, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2003, European Central Bank.
    10. Emine Boz & Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2017. "Global Trade and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 23988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Hasan Güngör & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2019. "Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure in BRIC Countries: Evidence From Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    12. Varela, Liliana & Alfaro, Laura & Calani, Mauricio, 2021. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 16232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    15. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
    16. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    18. Keefe, Helena Glebocki, 2021. "The transmission of global monetary and credit shocks on exchange market pressure in emerging markets and developing economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Direye, Eli & Khemraj, Tarron, 2021. "Central bank securities and FX market intervention in a developing economy," MPRA Paper 111533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Aug 2021.
    20. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dominant currency pricing; exchange market pressure; international monetary system; nominal spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J83 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Workers' Rights
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2022-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bridget Fisher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.