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A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

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  • Chang, C-L.
  • Khamkaew, T.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2009-40.

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Date of creation: 24 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:17310

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Keywords: economic development; international tourism; panel data; threshold variable; tourism specialization;

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References

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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  2. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Badassa Tadasse, 2007. "The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa," Working Papers 200716, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  4. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Carla Campos, 2005. "International Tourism and Economic Growth: a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2005.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. R. Brau & A. Lanza & F. Pigliaru, 2006. "How fast are small tourist countries growing? The 1980-2003 evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 200614, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  6. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
  7. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  8. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
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Cited by:
  1. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1573-1588, May.
  2. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang, 2013. "Modelling Volatility Size Effects for Firm Performance: The Impact of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," MPRA Paper 45691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, H-K. & McAleer, M.J., 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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