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Research Note: Has International Tourism Promoted Economic Growth in China? A Panel Threshold Regression Approach

Author

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  • Taotao Deng

    (School of Urban and Regional Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, No 777, Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Mulan Ma

    (School of Tourism and Event Management, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, No 1900 Wenxiang Road, Shanghai, 201620, China)

  • Shuai Shao

    (School of Urban and Regional Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, No 777, Guoding Road, Shanghai 200433, China)

Abstract

The authors confirm a non-monotonic relationship between international tourism and economic growth, using China's province-level panel data from 1987 to 2010. Two endogenous cut-off points of the efficiency of international tourism in economic growth are identified. When the degree of tourism specialization is lower than 1.80% or between 1.80% and 2.04%, international tourism has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but the magnitude of the impact is weaker in the latter case. When the degree of tourism specialization exceeds 2.04%, an insignificant negative relationship between tourism and economic growth emerges. This suggests that tourism-led economic growth may not be sustained at high levels of tourism specialization.

Suggested Citation

  • Taotao Deng & Mulan Ma & Shuai Shao, 2014. "Research Note: Has International Tourism Promoted Economic Growth in China? A Panel Threshold Regression Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 911-917, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:911-917
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
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    3. Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-40, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Brau, Rinaldo & Lanza, Alessandro & Pigliaru, Francesco, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," MPRA Paper 82776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Paolo Figini & Laura Vici, 2010. "Tourism and Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 789-805, December.
    6. Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza & Francesco Pigliaru, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 603-613, December.
    7. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mulan Ma & Weishu Zhao & Guanxu Wan & Taotao Deng & Yi Yang, 2023. "Specialization versus diversity: The role of city size in tourist cities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2081-2102, December.
    2. Taotao Deng & Mulan Ma & Jianhua Cao, 2014. "Tourism Resource Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Resource Curse Hypothesis Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 923-938, October.
    3. Liang Zhu & Lingxue Zhan & Shaobo (Kevin) Li, 2021. "Is sustainable development reasonable for tourism destinations? An empirical study of the relationship between environmental competitiveness and tourism growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 66-78, January.
    4. Bart Neuts, 2020. "Tourism and urban economic growth: A panel analysis of German cities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 519-527, May.
    5. Roberto Balado-Naves & David Boto-García & José Francisco Baños-Pino, 2024. "A multisector growth model for testing the Tourism-Led Growth versus the Beach Disease hypotheses," Efficiency Series Papers 2024/01, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    6. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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