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The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

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  • Chang, C-L.
  • Hsu, H-K.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used to estimate the volatility in the stock indexes for large and small firms in Taiwan. Daily data from 30 November 2001 to 27 February 2013 are used, which covers the period of Cross-Straits tension between China and Taiwan. The full sample period is divided into two subsamples, namely prior to and after the policy reform that encouraged Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The empirical findings confirm that there have been important changes in the volatility size effects for firm performance, regardless of firm size and estimation period. Furthermore, the risk premium reveals insignificant estimates in both time periods, while asymmetric effects are found to exist only for large firms after the policy reform. The empirical findings should be useful for financial managers and policy analysts as it provides insight into the magnitude of the volatility size effects for firm performance, how it can vary with firm size, the impacts arising from the industry policy reform, and how firm size is related to financial risk management strategy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2013-26.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:41465

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Keywords: asymmetry; conditional volatility models; firm size; stock returns; tourism; tourism policy reforms; volatility size effects;

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  1. Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Chia-Lin Chang & Biing-Wen Huang & Meng-Gu Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan: The Impact of Joining the WTO," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-642, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2011. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-34, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  4. Gabriel Hawawini & Venkat Subramanian & Paul Verdin, 2003. "Is performance driven by industry or firm-specific factors? A new look at the evidence," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14188, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Hammoudeh, S.M. & McAleer, M.J., 2012. "Risk Management and Financial Derivatives: An Overview," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Mehran, Hamid, 1995. "Executive compensation structure, ownership, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-184, June.
  8. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, H-K. & McAleer, M.J., 2012. "Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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  15. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  16. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  17. Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
  18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  19. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
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  21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521694681 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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