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Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management

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Author Info
Fabrice Barthélémy () (ThEMA, University of Cergy-Pontoise, Cergy-Pontoise, France)
Jean-Luc Prigent () (ThEMA, University of Cergy-Pontoise, Cergy-Pontoise, France)

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Abstract

This paper examines the properties of optimal times to sell a diversified real estate portfolio. The portfolio value is supposed to be the sum of the discounted free cash flows and the discounted terminal value (the discounted selling price). According to Baroni et al. (2007b), we assume that the terminal value corresponds to the real estate index. The optimization problem corresponds to the maximization of a quasi-linear utility function. We consider three cases. The first one assumes that the investor knows the probability distribution of the real estate index. However, at the initial time, he has to choose one deterministic optimal time to sell. The second one considers an investor who is perfectly informed about the market dynamics. Whatever the random event that generates the path, he knows the entire path from the beginning. Then, given the realization of the random variable, the path is deterministic for this investor. Therefore, at the initial time, he can determine the optimal time to sell for each path of the index. Finally, the last case is devoted to the analysis of the intertemporal optimization, based on the American option approach. We compute the optimal solution for each of these three cases and compare their properties. The comparison is also made with the buy-and-hold strategy.

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Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2008-13.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-13

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Related research
Keywords: Real estate portfolio; Optimal holding period; American option.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Patric H. Hendershott & David C. Ling, 1984. "Prospective Changes in Tax Law and the Value of Depreciable Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 297-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2006. "Monte Carlo Simulations versus DCF in Real Estate Portfolio Valuation," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  3. Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David Collett & Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2003. "Timing and the Holding Periods of Institutional Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 205-222, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Baroni, Michel & Barthélémy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Mahdi, 2007. "Optimal Holding Period for a Real Estate Portfolio," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
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