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Real options models of the firm, capacity overhang, and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Aretz, Kevin
  • Pope, Peter F.

Abstract

We use a stochastic frontier model to obtain a stock-level estimate of the difference between a firm's installed production capacity and its optimal capacity. We show that this "capacity overhang" estimate relates significantly negatively to the cross-section of stock returns, even when controlling for popular pricing factors. The negative relation persists among small and large stocks, stocks with more or less reversible investments, and in good and bad economic states. Capacity overhang helps explain momentum and profitability anomalies, but not value and investment anomalies. Our evidence supports real options models of the firm featuring valuable divestment options.

Suggested Citation

  • Aretz, Kevin & Pope, Peter F., 2018. "Real options models of the firm, capacity overhang, and the cross-section of stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85963, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:85963
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/85963/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2009. "Real Options, Product Market Competition, and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 957-983, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yayun Ren & Jian Yu & Shuhua Xu & Jiaomei Tang & Chang Zhang, 2023. "Green Finance and Industrial Low-Carbon Transition: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Can Real Options Explain the Skewness of Stock Returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Andrea Gamba & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Endogenous Option Pricing," Working Papers 2202, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    6. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    7. Wang, Zhan-ao & Zheng, Chengsi, 2022. "Is technological innovation the cure for overcapacity? Exploring mediating and moderating mechanisms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 348-361.
    8. Ang, Tze Chuan 'Chewie' & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Pham, Thu A.T. & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Firm efficiency and stock returns: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General

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