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Losing the inflation anchor

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  • Reis, Ricardo

Abstract

Inflation has an anchor in people’s expectations of what its long-run value will be. If expectations persistently change, then the anchor is adrift; if they differ from the central bank’s target, the anchor is lost. This paper uses data on expectations from market prices, from professional surveys, and from the cross-sectional distribution of household surveys to measure shifts in this anchor. Its main application is to the US Great Inflation. The data suggests that the anchor started drifting as early as 1967 and that this could have been spotted well before policymakers did. Using this approach on expectations data from Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, the US in the 1970s, and the US in 2021, confirms their usefulness to measure the inflation anchor in real time.

Suggested Citation

  • Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Losing the inflation anchor," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112462, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112462
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/132, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Philomena Dadzie & Dorcas Oye Haywood-Dadzie, 2023. "Measuring the Effect of Income Inequality, Financial Inclusion, Investment, and Unemployment, on Economic Growth in Africa: A Moderating Role of Digital Financial Technology," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 111-124, July.
    4. Stefan Nagel & Zhen Yan, 2022. "Inflation Hedging on Main Street? Evidence from Retail TIPS Fund Flows," NBER Working Papers 30692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Binder, Carola Conces, 2022. "Time-of-day and day-of-week variations in Amazon Mechanical Turk survey responses," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Jason Somerville & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & John C. Williams, 2022. "The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations," Staff Reports 1037, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Carl E. Walsh, 2022. "Inflation Surges and Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 40, pages 39-66, November.
    8. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Jane M. Ryngaert, 2023. "Balance of Risks and the Anchoring of Consumer Expectations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Ignazio Visco, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(2), pages 111-129, September.
    11. John C. Williams, 2023. "Effective dialogue and well anchored inflation expectations: essential tools for navigating challenging times," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 149-162, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Thomas J. Carter & Amartya Lahiri, 2022. "Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma," Staff Working Papers 22-41, Bank of Canada.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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