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The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse

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Author Info
Núñez, José A.
Urzúa, Carlos M.

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Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of the Mexican current account deficit prior to the December 1994 crisis. It tests whether or not the Mexican economy was satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint, and finds that signals of possible trouble without a change in policies were present long before the crisis. The tests used are based on the Wickens-Uctum criterion for the sustainability of current account deficits, extended to include the case of possible interventions.

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File URL: http://alejandria.ccm.itesm.mx/egap/documentos/EGAP-2003-03.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México in its series EGAP Working Papers with number 200303.

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Date of creation: Oct 1995
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Publication status: Published in Estudios Económicos, 1996, vol. 11, pp. 167-180.
Handle: RePEc:ega:docume:200303

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Web page: http://www.ccm.itesm.mx/egap/
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Related research
Keywords: Mexican crisis; sustainability; Mexican current account deficit;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS," Research Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
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  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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