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When the Claim Hits: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Bounded Rational Learning

Author

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  • Lauge N. Skovgaard Poulsen

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Emma Aisbett

    (The Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy; The Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics)

Abstract

Using the international investment regime as its point of departure, the paper introduces notions of bounded rationality to the study of economic diplomacy. Through a multi-method approach, it shows that developing countries often ignored the risks of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) until they themselves became subject to an investment treaty claim. Thus the behavior of developing country governments with regard to the international investment regime is consistent with that observed for individuals in experiments and field studies: they tend to ignore high-impact, low-probability risks if they cannot bring specific 'vivid' instances to mind.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauge N. Skovgaard Poulsen & Emma Aisbett, 2011. "When the Claim Hits: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Bounded Rational Learning," Crawford School Research Papers 1105, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:crwfrp:1105
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhagwat, Vineet & Brogaard, Jonathan & Julio, Brandon, 2021. "A BIT goes a long way: Bilateral investment treaties and cross-border mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 514-538.
    2. Duy Vu, 2018. "Reasons not to Exit? A Survey of the Effectiveness and Spillover Effects of International Investment Arbitration," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Duy Vu & Michele Pezzoni & Duc Lam Nguyen, 2021. "Arbitrator teams and dispute resolution performance: an empirical analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 347-381, April.
    4. Yoram Z. Haftel & Alexander Thompson, 2018. "When do states renegotiate investment agreements? The impact of arbitration," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-48, March.
    5. Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2016. "Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 177-213, February.
    6. Chia-yi Lee & Noel P. Johnston, 2016. "Improving Reputation BIT by BIT: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Accountability," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 429-451, May.
    7. Tuuli-Anna Huikuri, 2023. "Constraints and incentives in the investment regime: How bargaining power shapes BIT reform," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 361-391, April.
    8. Emma Aisbett & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Bilateral investment treaties as deterrents of host-country discretion: the impact of investor-state disputes on foreign direct investment in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 119-155, February.
    9. Duy Vu, 2019. "Reasons not to exit? A survey of the effectiveness and spillover effects of international investment arbitration," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 291-319, April.
    10. Anna Herranz-Surrallés, 2020. "‘Authority Shifts’ in Global Governance: Intersecting Politicizations and the Reform of Investor–State Arbitration," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 336-347.
    11. Robert Basedow, 2021. "The EU's International Investment Policy ten years on: the Policy‐Making Implications of Unintended Competence Transfers," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 643-660, May.
    12. Timm Betz & Andrew Kerner, 2016. "The influence of interest: Real US interest rates and bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 419-448, December.
    13. Philipp Hühne & Birgit Meyer & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2016. "Democracies cooperate more: even where it threatens to bite?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(11), pages 812-815, July.
    14. Tarald Gulseth Berge & Øyvind Stiansen, 2023. "Bureaucratic capacity and preference attainment in international economic negotiations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 467-498, July.
    15. Soo Yeon Kim, 2021. "Investment commitments in PTAs and MNCS in partner countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 415-442, November.
    16. Dominique Bruhn, 2015. "Coverage and enforceability of investment rules in PTAs: the role of global value chain trade and regulatory differences," FIW Working Paper series 142, FIW.
    17. Aisbett, Emma & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Bilateral investment treaties do work: Until they don't," Kiel Working Papers 2021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Nunnenkamp Peter, 2016. "Demokratie und internationale Investitionsabkommen: (Überraschende) Zusammenhänge und (lückenhafte) Erklärungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 364-382, December.
    19. Fangjin Ye, 2020. "The impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on collective labor rights in developing countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 899-921, October.
    20. Harish, Nikki & Plouffe, Michael, 2018. "The Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," OSF Preprints chzpq, Center for Open Science.
    21. Anne Marie Thow & Wolfgang Alschner & Faisal Aljunied, 2023. "Public health clauses in international investment agreements: Sword or shield?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 260-269, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bounded rationality; international political economy; international economic law; bilateral investment treaties;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law

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