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Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Correlation versus Causation

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  • Aisbett, Emma

Abstract

The rapid and concurrent increase in both foreign investment and government efforts to attract foreign investment at the end of last century makes the question of causality between the two both interesting and challenging. I take up this question for the case of the nearly 2,500 bilateral investment treaties (BITs) that have been signed since 1980. Using data on bilateral investment outflows from OECD countries, I test whether BITs stimulate investment in twenty eight low- and middle-income countries. In contrast to previous studies that have found a strong effect from BIT participation, I explicitly model and empirically account for the endogeneity of BIT adoption. I also test for a signaling effect from BITs. I find that the initially strong correlation between BITs and investment flows is not robust controlling for selection into BIT participation. Furthermore, I find no evidence for the claim that BITs signal a safe investment climate. My results show the importance of accounting for the endogeneity of adoption when assessing the benefits of investment liberalization policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aisbett, Emma, 2007. "Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Correlation versus Causation," CUDARE Working Papers 7188, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:7188
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7188
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    1. Falvey R. & Foster-McGregor N., 2015. "North-South FDI and Bilateral Investment Treaties," MERIT Working Papers 2015-010, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. O’Steen Brianna, 2021. "Bilateral labor agreements and the migration of Filipinos: An instrumental variable approach," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2013. "What determines BITs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 107-122.
    4. Shunya Ozawa, 2023. "Do international investment agreements attract foreign direct investment in knowledge intensive industries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2080-2101, July.
    5. Martin Kabrt, 2021. "After the BITs: The uncertain future of international investment governance," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - February 2021, pages 12-20, Czech National Bank.
    6. Lauge N. Skovgaard Poulsen & Emma Aisbett, 2011. "When the Claim Hits: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Bounded Rational Learning," Crawford School Research Papers 1105, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Alessandro Barattieri, 2011. "Estimating Trade and Investment Flows: Partners and Volumes," Cahiers de recherche 1133, CIRPEE.
    8. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2017. "Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 631-656, November.
    9. Li, Chen, 2016. "Signing a Bilateral Investment Treaty - A tradeoff between investment protection and regulation," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145505, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Zoe Phillips Williams, 2016. "Investor-State Arbitration in Domestic Mining Conflicts," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 16(4), pages 32-49, November.
    11. Josef C. Brada & Zdenek Drabek & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does Investor Protection Increase Foreign Direct Investment? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 34-70, February.
    12. Aisbett, Emma & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Bilateral investment treaties do work: Until they don't," Kiel Working Papers 2021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Aisbett Emma & Karp Larry & McAusland Carol, 2010. "Compensation for Indirect Expropriation in International Investment Agreements: Implications of National Treatment and Rights to Invest," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-35, December.
    14. Seungjun Kim, 2023. "Protecting home: how firms’ investment plans affect the formation of bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 667-692, October.
    15. Cao, Thi Hong Vinh & Lu, Thi Thu Trang & Nguyen, Thi Viet Hoa, 2014. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to Vietnam," Papers 916, World Trade Institute.
    16. Andrew Myburgh & Jordi Paniagua, 2016. "Does International Commercial Arbitration Promote Foreign Direct Investment?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 597-627.
    17. Emma Aisbett & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Bilateral investment treaties as deterrents of host-country discretion: the impact of investor-state disputes on foreign direct investment in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 119-155, February.
    18. Cote, Christine, 2018. "A chilling effect? Are international investment agreements hindering government’s regulatory autonomy?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108406, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Parfait Bihkongnyuy Beri & Gabila Fohtung Nubong, 2021. "Impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(3), pages 439-451, September.
    20. Arjan Lejour & Maria Salfi, 2015. "The Regional Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment," CPB Discussion Paper 298, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Robert Basedow, 2021. "The EU's International Investment Policy ten years on: the Policy‐Making Implications of Unintended Competence Transfers," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 643-660, May.
    22. Basedow, Robert, 2020. "The EU's international investment policy ten years on: the policy-making implications of unintended competence transfers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105161, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Baetens, Freya, 2015. "Transatlantic Investment Treaty Protection � A Response to Poulsen, Bonnitcha and Yackee," CEPS Papers 10297, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    24. Peter Draper & Andreas Freytag & Frank Schorkopf & Christian Bellak & Stormy-Annika Mildner & Christoph Sprich & Elizabeth Johnson & Stefan Beck & Christoph Scherrer, 2014. "Investment Protection Debate: Pros and Cons of Investment Protection in the TTIP Agreement," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(12), pages 03-19, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General

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