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Application of investment models in foreign exchange reserve management in Eesti Pank

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  • Andres Vesilind

    ()

  • Toivo Kuus

    ()

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    Abstract

    This paper describes active investment strategy used in the central bank of Estonia and introduces model-based investment decisions as a component of that strategy. The first chapter of the paper describes the evolution of the investment process in Eesti Pank and outlines the framework of reserve management. It describes the role of several forms and styles of investing: active and passive management, qualitative and quantitative management, emphasizing the role of diversification for achieving better performance. The chapter concludes with the description of the investment strategy used in the central bank of Estonia. The second chapter describes model-based investing as part of active management strategy. Three investment models are estimated and tested: a model for directional positions in the US, German and Japanese 10-year government bond futures, a model for cross-currency positions in ten major currencies, and a model for cross-country yield spread trades in eight major government bond markets. The models extend the framework developed by Ilmanen and Sayood (Ilmanen et al. 2002). After the model estimation the models are combined with a trend-following model and the whole set of diversified models is tested. Finally, correlation study of these results with the results of external asset managers and in-bank discretionary analysis is performed. The paper ends with a discussion on the possibilities for further development of the quantitative investment program and conclusions.

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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/_2005/_6_2005/_wp_605.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2005-6.

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    Date of creation: 10 Oct 2005
    Date of revision: 10 Oct 2005
    Publication status: published
    Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-06

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    Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
    Phone: +3726680719
    Fax: +3726680900
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    Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
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    Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
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    Related research

    Keywords: trading rules; active management; central bank reserves;

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    References

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
    2. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
    3. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    5. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
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