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Un Análisis Econométrico del Consumo Mundial de Celulosa

Author

Listed:
  • José Ignacio Sémbler
  • Patricio Meller
  • Joaquín Vial

Abstract

En este trabajo se especifica y estima un modelo econométrico para el consumo de celulosa a nivel mundial y desagregado según los principales países consumidores. El modelo utilizado corresponde a uno de demanda derivada para una firma productora de papel representativa que demandará celulosa como un insumo más para su producción. Esta demanda es posteriormente agregada a nivel de país para la estimación econométrica. Las elasticidades del consumo mundial son obtenidas mediante simulaciones del modelo agregado. Luego se estudia la capacidad del modelo para replicar los datos históricos, su respuesta ante shocks transitorios sobre ciertas variables relevantes y su comportamiento fuera del período de estimación. Los resultados obtenidos son acordes con la evidencia empírica existente. La elasticidad precio del consumo a nivel mundial tiene un valor -0,20 en el corto plazo (CP) y -0,24 en el largo plazo (LP). El ingreso de los países resultó ser una de las variables que tiene gran influencia en el consumo de celulosa; la elasticidad ingreso encontrada fue 1,02 y 1,12 para el CP y LP respectivamente. En este estudio se incorporó también el efecto del precio del papel reciclado, obteniéndose una elasticidad precio cruzada de 0,22 en el CP y de 0,24 en el LP, lo que pone de manifiesto la sustitución entre estos productos. Para el precio de la energía se obtuvo una elasticidad de -0,01 tanto en el CP como en el LP. El hecho que no se registraran diferencias significativas entre las elasticidades de corto y largo plazo indicaría según el modelo planteado, que el consumo de celulosa no sufre mayores ajustes entre lo que es consumo corriente y el de largo plazo o de equilibrio. Los resultados indican además que si bien es innegable la importancia creciente en el consumo mundial de celulosa que han tenido países en vías de desarrollo como China, actualmente son los países industrializados los que tienen una mayor incidencia en el consumo mundial; luego, escenarios futuros para el consumo de este producto, al menos en el corto plazo, debiesen estar ligados con el comportamiento de estos países. El estudio muestra además que el modelo agregado es capaz de replicar satisfactoriamente los datos históricos dentro de la muestra, así como también los datos fuera de la muestra. Finalmente una proyección a mediando plazo para el período 2003-2008 predice que el consumo de este producto debiese crecer a una tasa promedio anual del 2,3%, cifra acorde con las proyecciones que maneja la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ignacio Sémbler & Patricio Meller & Joaquín Vial, 2006. "Un Análisis Econométrico del Consumo Mundial de Celulosa," Documentos de Trabajo 227, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:227
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1988. "Specification Tests Based on Artificial Regressions," Working Paper 707, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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