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Extremal Dependence In Exchange Rate Markets

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Author Info
Viviana Fernandez

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Abstract

Exchange rate markets exhibit correlation in the short run, but the issue is whether such correlation lingers over long periods of time, and under extreme events (i.e., either large appreciations or depreciations). In this paper, we analyze dependence between nominal exchange rates under extreme events for a sample of ten countries with dirty/free float regimes over the period 1998-2002. In addition, we investigate whether currencies have exhibited extremal dependence on the Euro, since its adoption in 1999. Our findings are the following. First, in general, there is no evidence of extremal dependence between returns pairs. Second, the degree of dependence is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations. These conclusions are robust to filtering out the data for serial correlation and heteroscedasticy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 13.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:13

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Related research
Keywords: extremal dependence; DVEC models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. POON, Ser-Huang & ROCKINGER, Michael & TAWN, Jonathan, 2001. "New Extreme-Value Dependance Measures and Finance Applications," Les Cahiers de Recherche 719, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
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