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Comovements in Trading activity: A Multivariate Autoregressive Model of Time Series Count Data Using Copulas

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Erick Rengifo
Andresas Heinen

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Abstract

This paper introduces the Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion and both auto- and cross-correlation, arising with multivariate counts. We model counts with a double Poisson and assume that conditionally on past observations the means follow a Vector Autoregression. We resort to copulas to introduce contemporaneous correlation. We advocate the use of our model as a feasible alternative to multivariate duration models and apply it to the study of sector and stock specific news related to the comovements in the number of trades per unit of time of the most important US department stores traded on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that the market leaders inside an specific sector, in terms of more sectorial information conveyed by their trades, are related to their size measured by their market capitalization.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 755.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:755

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Related research
Keywords: Continuousation; Factor model; Market microstructure.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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  1. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  2. Robert F. Engle & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 159-188.
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  3. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


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