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Overestimating Self-Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry

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Author Info
Malmendier, Ulrike M. (Stanford U)
Della Vigna, Stefano (U of California, Berkeley)
Abstract

Experimental evidence suggests that people make time-inconsistent choices and display overconfidence about positive personal attributes. Do these features affect consumer behavior in the market? To address this question we use a new panel data set from three US health clubs with information on the contract choices and the day-to-day attendance decisions of 7,978 health club members over three years. Members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over $70 attend on average 4.8 times per month. They pay a price per expected visit of more than $17, even though a $10-per-visit fee is also available. On average, these users forgo savings of $700 during their membership. We review many aspects of the consumer behavior, including the interval between last attendance and contract termination, the survival probability, and the correlation between different consumption choices. The empirical results are diffcult to reconcile with the standard assumption of time-consistent preferences and rational expectations. A model of time-inconsistent agents with overconfidence about future time inconsistency explains the findings. The agents overestimate the future attendance and delay contract cancellation whenever renewal is automatic.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1880.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1880

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  1. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Koszegi, 2000. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jonathan Gruber & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "Do Cigarette Taxes Make Smokers Happier?," NBER Working Papers 8872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2007. "Time-Inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY," NBER Working Papers 13375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David A. Wise, 1998. "Frontiers in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise98-1, September.
  6. Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "A Memory-Based Model Of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 735-774, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. M.Daniele Paserman, 2008. "Job Search and Hyperbolic Discounting: Structural Estimation and Policy Evaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1418-1452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2002. "For Better or For Worse: Default Effects and 401(k) Savings Behavior," JCPR Working Papers 256, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
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  1. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Do Consumers Choose the Right Credit Contracts?," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/32, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2007. "Time-Inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY," NBER Working Papers 13375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Stefano DellaVigna & Ulrike Malmendier, 2006. "Paying Not to Go to the Gym," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 694-719, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Laibson & Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Competition and Consumer Confusion," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 663, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Huffman, David & Barenstein, Matias, 2004. "Riches to Rags Every Month? The Fall in Consumption Expenditures Between Paydays," IZA Discussion Papers 1430, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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