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Investor Psychology and Tests of Factor Pricing Models

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  • Daniel, Kent

    (Northwestern U)

  • Hirshleifer, David

    (Ohio State U)

  • Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar

    (U of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

We provide a model with overconfident risk neutral investors, and therefore no risk premia, in which a price-based portfolio such as HML earns positive expected returns and loads on fundamental macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, loadings on such portfolios are proxies for mispricing and therefore forecast cross-sectional returns, even after controlling for characteristics such as book-to-market. Thus, an empirical finding that covariances incrementally predict returns does not distinguish rational factor pricing from a setting with no risk premia. The analysis reconciles the high risk (market betas) of low book-to-market firms with their low expected returns, and offers new empirical implications to distinguish alternative theories.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005-26.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2005-26

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
  2. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Pricing deviation, misvaluation comovement, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5285-5299.
  3. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," MPRA Paper 20636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2010.
  4. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  5. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2006. "The Accrual Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing?," Working Paper Series 2006-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  6. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. G√ľnter Franke & Thomas Weber, 2006. "Wieweit tragen rationale Modelle in der Finanzmarktforschung?," CoFE Discussion Paper 06-09, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  8. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "Commonality in Misvaluation, Equity Financing, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 16134, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2009.
  9. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
  10. Jung, Chan Shik & Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2009. "Can investor heterogeneity be used to explain the cross-section of average stock returns in emerging markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 648-670, June.

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