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Default Estimation and Expert Information: All Likely Dataset Analysis and Robust Validation

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Author Info
Kiefer, Nicholas M. (Cornell U)
Abstract

Default is a rare event, even in segments in the midrange of a bank's portfolio. Inference about default rates is essential for risk management and for compliance with the requirements of Basel II. Most commercial loans are in the middle-risk categories and are to unrated companies. Expert information is crucial in inference about defaults. A Bayesian approach is proposed and illustrated using a prior distribution assessed from an industry expert. The method of All Likely Datasets, based on sufficient statistics and expert information, is used to characterize likely datasets for analysis. A check of robustness is illustrated with an epsilon-- mixture of priors.

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Paper provided by Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics in its series Working Papers with number 07-11.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:corcae:07-11

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  1. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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