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Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions


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  • Garthwaite, Paul H.
  • Kadane, Joseph B.
  • O'Hagan, Anthony
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of the American Statistical Association.

    Volume (Year): 100 (2005)
    Issue (Month): (June)
    Pages: 680-701

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    Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlasa:v:100:y:2005:p:680-701

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    Cited by:
    1. Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2011. "Default estimation, correlated defaults, and expert information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 173-192, March.
    2. Chad Kendall & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Trebbi, 2013. "How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign," NBER Working Papers 18986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Byron Gajewski & Larry Price & Valorie Coffland & Diane Boyle & Marjorie Bott, 2013. "Integrated analysis of content and construct validity of psychometric instruments," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 57-78, January.
    4. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
    5. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.
    6. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
    7. Maarten Ijzerman & Lotte Steuten, 2011. "Early assessment of medical technologies to inform product development and market access," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 331-347, September.
    8. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837,
    9. Heaps, Sarah E. & Boys, Richard J. & Farrow, Malcolm, 2014. "Computation of marginal likelihoods with data-dependent support for latent variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 392-401.
    10. Nicolas Bousquet, 2010. "Eliciting vague but proper maximal entropy priors in Bayesian experiments," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 613-628, September.
    11. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    12. A. El-Bassiouny & M. Jones, 2009. "A bivariate F distribution with marginals on arbitrary numerator and denominator degrees of freedom, and related bivariate beta and t distributions," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 465-481, November.
    13. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2009. "Default estimation for low-default portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 164-173, January.
    14. Laura McCullagh & Cathal Walsh & Michael Barry, 2012. "Value-of-Information Analysis to Reduce Decision Uncertainty Associated with the Choice of Thromboprophylaxis after Total Hip Replacement in the Irish Healthcare Setting," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(10), pages 941-959, October.
    15. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    16. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2007. "Default Estimation and Expert Information: All Likely Dataset Analysis and Robust Validation," Working Papers 07-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    17. Joseph B. Kadane & Baruch Fischhoff, 2013. "A cautionary note on global recalibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(1), pages 25-28, January.
    18. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel van der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers 1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    19. Lichtendahl Jr., Kenneth C., 2009. "Random quantiles of the Dirichlet process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 501-507, February.
    20. LONGFORD Nicholas Tibor, 2011. "Policy-related small.area estimation," CEPS/INSTEAD Working Paper Series 2011-44, CEPS/INSTEAD.
    21. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2013. "An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 811-821.


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