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Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?

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  • Andreas Loschel
  • Christoph Bohringer

Abstract

We investigate the possible future of Post‐Kyoto climate policies until 2020. Based on a cross‐impact analysis, we first evaluate an expert poll to identify the most likely Post‐Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these scenarios. We find that Post‐Kyoto agreements will include only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries, while developing countries remain uncommitted, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on sovereignty or ability‐to‐pay. Global adjustment costs to Post‐Kyoto policies are very moderate, but regional costs to fuel exporting countries can be substantial because of distinct terms‐of‐trade effects on fossil fuel markets.
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  • Andreas Loschel & Christoph Bohringer, 2004. "Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 13, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:13
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    1. Cantore, Nicola & Padilla, Emilio, 2010. "Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 298-313.
    2. Clauss, Markus & Schubert, Stefanie, 2009. "The ZEW combined microsimulation-CGE model: innovative tool for applied policy analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Hübler, Michael & Löschel, Andreas, 2013. "The EU Decarbonisation Roadmap 2050—What way to walk?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 190-207.
    4. Wei, Chu & Löschel, Andreas & Liu, Bing, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the CO2 shadow price in Chinese thermal power enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 22-31.
    5. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.
    6. Zhang, Xiqian & Wilson, Clevo, 2022. "Transition from brown to green: Analyst optimism, investor discount, and Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Carbone, Jared C. & Helm, Carsten & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2009. "The case for international emission trade in the absence of cooperative climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 266-280, November.
    8. Zhou, P. & Wang, M., 2016. "Carbon dioxide emissions allocation: A review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 47-59.
    9. Boglioni, Michele & Zambelli, Stefano, 2018. "Specialization patterns and reduction of CO2 emissions. An empirical investigation of environmental preservation and economic efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 134-149.
    10. Hübler, Michael & Voigt, Sebastian & Löschel, Andreas, 2014. "Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-72.
    11. Hermeling, Claudia & Löschel, Andreas & Mennel, Tim, 2013. "A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-35.
    12. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade: Insights from Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1114-1122.
    13. Yi-Hua Wu & Hancheng Dai & Yang Xie & Toshihiko Masui, 2019. "The efforts of Taiwan to achieve NDC target: an integrated assessment on the carbon emission trading system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1295-1310, December.
    14. Wu, Yi-Hua & Liu, Chia-Hao & Hung, Ming-Lung & Liu, Tzu-Yar & Masui, Toshihiko, 2019. "Sectoral energy efficiency improvements in Taiwan: Evaluations using a hybrid of top-down and bottom-up models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1241-1255.
    15. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
    16. Andries Hof & Michel Elzen & Detlef Vuuren, 2009. "Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes: what can we learn from model studies?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 39-62, February.
    17. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    18. Liu, Zhiqing & Geng, Yong & Dai, Hancheng & Wilson, Jeffrey & Xie, Yang & Wu, Rui & You, Wei & Yu, Zhongjue, 2018. "Regional impacts of launching national carbon emissions trading market: A case study of Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 232-240.

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