IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202493.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Kristiansen, Kristian
  • Hvid, Anna Kirstine

Abstract

A growing body of literature analyses the impact of news on companies’ equity prices. We add to this literature by showing that the transmission channel of news to prices differs across sectors. First, we disentangle sectoral equity prices into components of expected future earnings and equity risk premia. Then, we evaluate how these react to general and sector specific sentiment shocks constructed from Reuters news articles. We find that price changes for especially the financial sector are mainly driven by changes in equity risk premia, while changes in earnings expectations play a comparatively larger role for other sectors. JEL Classification: G10, G12, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Kristiansen, Kristian & Hvid, Anna Kirstine, 2020. "How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia," Working Paper Series 2493, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2493~c7965dbd83.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
    3. Nitish Ranjan Sinha, 2016. "Underreaction to News in the US Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-46, June.
    4. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    5. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    6. Mete Kilic & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2019. "Good and Bad Variance Premia and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2522-2544, June.
    7. Casey Dougal & Joseph Engelberg & Diego García & Christopher A. Parsons, 2012. "Journalists and the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 639-679.
    8. Matthias W. Uhl, 2014. "Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 287-298, October.
    9. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    10. Kevin Daly, 2016. "A Secular Increase in the Equity Risk Premium," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, June.
    11. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    12. Geis, André & Kapp, Daniel & Kristiansen, Kristian, 2018. "Measuring and interpreting the cost of equity in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    13. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    14. Smales, Lee A., 2015. "Time-variation in the impact of news sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-50.
    15. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    17. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    18. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    2. Steven Heston & Nitish R. Sinha, 2016. "News versus Sentiment : Predicting Stock Returns from News Stories," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Pragidis, 2019. "Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 91-112, February.
    4. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    5. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    7. Su, Zhi & Lu, Man & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Oil prices and news-based uncertainty: Novel evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 331-340.
    8. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    9. John Griffith & Mohammad Najand & Jiancheng Shen, 2020. "Emotions in the Stock Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 42-56, January.
    10. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
    11. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    12. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 838-868, July.
    13. Anand, Abhinav & Basu, Sankarshan & Pathak, Jalaj & Thampy, Ashok, 2021. "The impact of sentiment on emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 161-177.
    14. Chau, Michael & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2020. "Wisdom of crowds before the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2016. "The Effect of Infomation on Financial Markets: A Survey," MPRA Paper 71396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Benjamin Clapham & Michael Siering & Peter Gomber, 2021. "Popular News Are Relevant News! How Investor Attention Affects Algorithmic Decision-Making and Decision Support in Financial Markets," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 477-494, April.
    17. Fengler, Matthias & Phan, Minh Tri, 2023. "A Topic Model for 10-K Management Disclosures," Economics Working Paper Series 2307, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    18. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    19. Yang Liu & Liyan Han & Libo Yin, 2018. "Does news uncertainty matter for commodity futures markets? Heterogeneity in energy and non‐energy sectors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1246-1261, October.
    20. Ahmed, Yousry & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2016. "The effect of bidder conservatism on M&A decisions: Text-based evidence from US 10-K filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-190.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dividend discount models; equity risk premia; news sentiment; stock returns; text analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.