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VAR for VaR: measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles

Author

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  • Manganelli, Simone
  • White, Halbert
  • Kim, Tae-Hwan

Abstract

This paper proposes methods for estimation and inference in multivariate, multi-quantile models. The theory can simultaneously accommodate models with multiple random variables, multiple confidence levels, and multiple lags of the associated quantiles. The proposed framework can be conveniently thought of as a vector autoregressive (VAR) extension to quantile models. We estimate a simple version of the model using market equity returns data to analyse spillovers in the values at risk (VaR) between a market index and financial institutions. We construct impulse-response functions for the quantiles of a sample of 230 financial institutions around the world and study how financial institution-specific and system-wide shocks are absorbed by the system. We show how the long-run risk of the largest and most leveraged financial institutions is very sensitive to market wide shocks in situations of financial distress, suggesting that our methodology can prove a valuable addition to the traditional toolkit of policy makers and supervisors. JEL Classification: C13, C14, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Manganelli, Simone & White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan, 2015. "VAR for VaR: measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 1814, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151814
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAViaR; codependence; quantile impulse-responses; spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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