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Quantile And Probability Curves Without Crossing

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Author Info
Victor Chernozhukov () (MIT, Department of Economics & Operations Research Center, University College London and The University of Chicago)
Ivan Fernandez-Val () (Department of Economics, Boston University)
Alfred Galichon () (Harvard University, Department of Economics)

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Abstract

The most common approach to estimating conditional quantile curves is to fit a curve, typically linear, pointwise for each quantile. Linear functional forms, coupled with pointwise fitting, are used for a number of reasons including parsimony of the resulting approximations and good computational properties. The resulting fits, however, may not respect a logical monotonicity requirement-that the quantile curve be increasing as a function of probability. This paper studies the natural monotonization of these empirical curves induced by sampling from the estimated non-monotone model, and then taking the resulting conditional quantile curves that by construction are monotone in the probability. This construction of monotone quantile curves may be seen as a bootstrap and also as a monotonic rearrangement of the original non-monotone function. It is shown that the monotonized curves are closer to the true curves in finite samples, for any sample size. Under correct specification, the rearranged conditional quantile curves have the same asymptotic distribution as the original non-monotone curves. Under misspecification, however, the asymptotics of the rearranged curves may partially differ from the asymptotics of the original non-monotone curves. An analogous procedure is developed to monotonize the estimates of conditional distribution functions. The results are derived by establishing the compact (Hadamard) differentiability of the monotonized quantile and probability curves with respect to the original curves in discontinuous directions, tangentially to a set of continuous functions. In doing so, the compact differentiability of the rearrangement-related operators is established.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2007-011.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-011

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Related research
Keywords: Quantile regression; Monotonicity; Rearrangement; Approximation; Functional Delta Method; Hadamard Di®erentiability of Rearrangement Operators.;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Blaise Melly, 2008. "Inference On Counterfactual Distributions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-005, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frölich, Markus & Melly, Blaise, 2008. "Quantile Treatment Effects in the Regression Discontinuity Design," IZA Discussion Papers 3638, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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