The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison
AbstractThis paper examines the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is potentially strong, particularly for the financial sector, and is stronger than that of financial spreads; ii) varies over time, with a substantial improvement after 1999 for the euro area; iii) is stronger for investment than for private consumption; and iv) is stronger in the euro area than in the United States. JEL Classification: C53, E37, G12
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1343.
Date of creation: May 2011
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-06-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-06-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-06-04 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013.
"Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, 02.
- Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2012. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving and Monetary Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp1132, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2011. "Cyclical risk aversion, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 418, Bank of England.
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