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Quality enhancements in Government Finance Statistics since the introduction of the euro - Econometric evidence

Author

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  • Maurer, Henri
  • Keweloh, Sascha

Abstract

This paper reviews the development of the quality of the main fiscal data released through the Excessive Deficit Procedures (EDP) since the euro's introduction. As such, this paper presents the outcome of various econometric tests based on all the vintages of the annual main fiscal data (deficit, change in debt) to assess whether qualitative progress took place over the years. Sound Government Financial Statistics (GFS) data are indeed crucial in the context of the fiscal surveillance carried out in the EU. Therefore, we find it useful to carry out a study responding to former criticisms which pointed out that Member States were beautifying their fiscal data and especially their first notified deficit. It was often assumed that Member States could abuse the initial recording of components which bridge the deficit to the change in debt (the so-called deficit-debt adjustments components). To assess this qualitative development properly, the study goes beyond the simple description of the revisions. It proposes innovative ways to identify whether each step of the revision is caused by the upward change in deficit. The study also seeks to better identify the datasets which triggered the qualitative progress observed. JEL Classification: H81, M48

Suggested Citation

  • Maurer, Henri & Keweloh, Sascha, 2017. "Quality enhancements in Government Finance Statistics since the introduction of the euro - Econometric evidence," Statistics Paper Series 26, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:201726
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, September.
    2. Mr. Mike Seiferling, 2013. "Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government’s Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2013/063, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marco Buti & João Nogueira Martins & Alessandro Turrini, 2007. "From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 53(1), pages 115-152, March.
    4. von Hagen, Jurgen & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3259-3279, December.
    5. Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Stock-Flow Adjustments and Fiscal Transparency: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2012/039, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kezbere, Linda & Maurer, Henri, 2018. "Deficit-debt adjustment (DDA) analysis: an analytical tool to assess the consistency of government finance statistics," Statistics Paper Series 29, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); fiscal rules and creative accounting; recording of fiscal data; reliability of fiscal indicators; revisions of fiscal data; stock-flow adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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