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One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach

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Author Info
Gábor P. Kiss () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

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Abstract

Fiscal analysis requires a set of indicators. For calculating the structural deficit, it is examined whether measures have permanent or temporary budgetary impacts, if any (creative accounting). For measuring fiscal impulse, it is examined when a given measure has a ‘true’ economic impact, if ever (creative accounting). For example, capital transfers to cover the losses of quasi-fiscal activities do not spread to the actual (‘true’) period of time by accrual recording. It is important to remove such illusory items from statistical expenditures and revenues, but in order to account for the ‘true’ effect, expenditures must be augmented, e.g. by quasi-fiscal losses and PPP investment. This type of analytical indicator has been employed by the central bank of Hungary for a decade. According to our experience, this ‘true’ measure is consistent in a macroeconomic sense and methodologically more robust than the statistical deficit, which often requires a subsequent upward revision. This kind of analytical methodology allows flexibility supported by expert judgement, and at the same time it requires transparency of methods and data.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary) in its journal MNB Conference Volume.

Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 18-27
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Handle: RePEc:mnb:confer:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:18-27

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Related research
Keywords: creative accounting quasi-fiscal activities private-public-partnership.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H19 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Other
H69 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Other

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Egil Matsen & Tommy Sveen & Ragnar Torvik, 2005. "Savers, Spenders and Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," IMF Working Papers 96/52, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  5. Sandro Momigliano & Pietro Rizza, 2007. "Temporary measures in Italy: buying or losing time?," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 61-71, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurent Paul & Christope Schalck, 2007. "Transfers to the government of public corporation pension liabilities: The French case study," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 72-80, December. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  8. Jana Kremer & Claudia Rodrigues Braz & Teunis Brosens & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Mikko Spolander, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Working Paper Series 579, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Buti, Marco & Martins, Joao Nogueira & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio, 2006. "From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram Wolff, 2006. "Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia," DNB Working Papers 103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  11. G. A. Mackenzie & Peter Stella, 1996. "Quasi-Fiscal Operations of Public Financial Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 142, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Nigel Andrew Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That: Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Fiscal transparency from central banks’ perspective: off-budget activities and government asset funds," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 9-17, December. [Downloadable!]
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