Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia
AbstractThe aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007â€“08 underlined the importance of maintaining fiscal space and fiscal sustainability. Even though many Asian economies implemented fiscal stimulus policies during the crisis period, their fiscal conditions generally improved rapidly thereafter, and their overall government debt positions, aside from that of Japan, appear strong. This reflects a number of supportive factors, including strong underlying growth, conservative fiscal management, and financial repression that keep interest rates low. Nonetheless, there are a number of reasons to believe that conditions in emerging Asian economies will not always be so supportive. First, economic growth will tend to slow as countries reach higher income levels. Second, many economies will face rapid aging, which will raise old-age-related spending dramatically, while tending to reduce economic dynamism. Third, financial repression is likely to diminish as financial markets develop, making debt management more challenging. The first objective of this paper is to identify long-term issues of fiscal sustainability risk for emerging Asian economiesâ€”such as large-scale subsidies, infrastructure investment requirements, aging and social protection spending, contingent liabilities, financial repression, and the exposure of the domestic banking sector to sovereign debt. The second objective is to recommend policies to reduce these risks to sustainability, including improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 23552.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
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Fiscal Sustainability; emerging Asia; fiscal stimulus policy; fiscal management; financial repression; fiscal rules and frameworks; fiscal surveillance;
Other versions of this item:
- Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan, 2013. "Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 751-770, September.
- Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan, 2013. "Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23552, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Kawai, Masahiro & Morgan, Peter J., 2013. "Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia," ADBI Working Papers 432, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adams, Charles & Ferrarini, Benno & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 205, Asian Development Bank.
- Nina Budina & Tidiane Kinda & Andrea Schaechter & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Rules at a Glance," IMF Working Papers 12/273, International Monetary Fund.
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