IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v88y2020icp151-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model

Author

Listed:
  • Akram, Vaseem
  • Rath, Badri Narayan

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between optimum government size and economic growth using data of Indian states during 1990-91 to 2017–18. Our results derived from panel threshold regression model show a positive and significant impact of government size on economic growth within the estimated thresholds for both aggregate and sub-panels based on income and regions. Once the government size moves above the upper threshold level, then its impact declines and turns to be insignificant. Thus, our findings suggest the policymakers for maintaining the government size within the thresholds limit.

Suggested Citation

  • Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 151-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:88:y:2020:i:c:p:151-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499931930642X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haryo Kuncoro, 2011. "The Sustainability Of State Budget In Debt Repayment," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Firman Mochtar, 2004. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction: Evidences and Implication for Inflation Targeting in Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 7(3), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan, 2013. "Long-term Issues for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 751-770, September.
    5. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    6. Tumpak Silalahi & Tevy Chawwa, 2011. "Relative Effectiveness Of Indonesian Policy Choices During Financial Crisis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(2), pages 1-42, October.
    7. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    8. Ndari Surjaningsih & Novi Maryaningsih & Myrnawati Savitri, 2014. "Threshold Of Real Exchange Rate And The Performance Of Manufacturing Industry In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, April.
    9. Shin-Chyang Lee & Shang-Fen Wu & Cheng-Te Lee, 2017. "Government Size and Stochastic Growth," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 219-227, September.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    11. Mourmouras, Iannis A. & Lee, Jong Eun, 1999. "Government spending on infrastructure in an endogenous growth model with finite horizons," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 395-407, September.
    12. Kristof Witte & Wim Moesen, 2010. "Sizing the government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 39-55, October.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    14. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae, 2013. "The Growth of Government Spending in Lesotho," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 339-352, December.
    15. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Wu, Yi-Chen & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2018. "Heterogeneity in the effects of government size and governance on economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 205-216.
    16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    17. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    18. Iskandar Simorangkir & Justina Adamanti, 2010. "The Role Of Fiscal Stimulus And Monetary Easing In Indonesian Economy During Global Financial Crisis: Financial Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 13(2), pages 1-24, October.
    19. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    20. Ndari Surjaningsih & G. A. Diah Utari & Budi Trisnanto, 2012. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Output And Inflation," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(4), pages 1-32, April.
    21. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    22. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    23. Arisyi F. Raz & Tamarind P. K. Indra & Dea K. Artikasih & Syalinda Citra, 2012. "Global Financial Crises And Economic Growth : Evidence From East Asian Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, October.
    24. Awaworyi Churchill, S. & Yew, S.L., 2017. "Are government transfers harmful to economic growth? A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 270-287.
    25. Ndari Surjaningsih & Novi Maryaningsih & Myrnawati Savitri, 2014. "Threshold Of Real Exchange Rate And The Performance Of Manufacturing Industry In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, April.
    26. Bambang Juanda, 2018. "The Denomination Effect On Spending Through Experimental Approach," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 20(4), pages 1-36, April.
    27. Daniel Landau, 1985. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the developed countries: 1952–76," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 459-477, January.
    28. M. Noor Nugroho & Ibrahim & Tri Winarno & Meily Ika Permata, 2014. "The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 16(3), pages 1-26, January.
    29. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    30. Agell, Jonas & Ohlsson, Henry & Thoursie, Peter Skogman, 2006. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 211-218, January.
    31. Conte, Michael A & Darrat, Ali F, 1988. "Economic Growth and the Expanding Public Sector: A Reexamination," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 322-330, May.
    32. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1051-1066, December.
    33. Kosempel, Stephen, 2004. "Finite lifetimes and government spending in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 197-210.
    34. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Karavias, Yiannis, 2016. "The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 65-68.
    35. Grossman, Philip J, 1990. "Government and Growth: Cross-sectional Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 217-227, June.
    36. Sugata Ghosh, 2002. "On public investment, long-run growth, and the real exchange rate," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 72-90, January.
    37. Arulampalam, Wiji & Dasgupta, Sugato & Dhillon, Amrita & Dutta, Bhaskar, 2009. "Electoral goals and center-state transfers: A theoretical model and empirical evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 103-119, January.
    38. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    39. repec:idn:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:2d:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2017. "Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 229-273, January.
    41. Joel Slemrod, 1995. "What Do Cross-Country Studies Teach about Government Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 373-431.
    42. Guseh, James S., 1997. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 175-192, January.
    43. Wu, Shih-Ying & Tang, Jenn-Hong & Lin, Eric S., 2010. "The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 804-817, November.
    44. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    45. Karras, Georgios, 1997. "On the Optimal Government Size in Europe: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 280-294, June.
    46. Dar, Atul A. & AmirKhalkhali, Sal, 2002. "Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 679-692, November.
    47. Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Government Size and Economic Growth:An Investigation of Causality in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 295-314, july.
    48. Indra Maipita & Mohd. Dan Jantan & Nor Azam Abdul Razak, 2010. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy toward Economic Performance and Poverty Rate in Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 12(4), pages 1-34, April.
    49. Rao, M. Govinda, 2017. "The Effect of Intergovernmental Transfers on Public Services in India," Working Papers 17/218, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    50. Hannu Tanninen, 1999. "Income inequality, government expenditures and growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1109-1117.
    51. Ram, Rati, 1989. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 281-284, March.
    52. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    53. M. Noor Nugroho & Ibrahim & Tri Winarno & Meily Ika Permata, 2014. "The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 16(3), pages 1-26, January.
    54. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Zhen Zhu & Yung-Hsing Kuo, 2010. "Government size and economic growth: an application of the smooth transition regression model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1405-1415.
    55. Edmund J. Sheehey, 1993. "The Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 321-328, Summer.
    56. Xiao-Bo Zhou & Wei Wei & Chyi-Lu Jang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2019. "The Impacts Of Government R&D Expenditure On Innovation In Chinese Provinces: What’S The Role Of Corruption," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-22, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giuranno, Michele G. & Nocco, Antonella, 2020. "Trade tariff, wage gap and public spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 167-179.
    2. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2021. "Understanding the evolution of fiscal performance of Indian states," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2172-2193, December.
    3. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2022. "The influences of government spending on energy poverty: Evidence from developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    4. Jianing Xu & Weidong Li, 2022. "The Impact of the Digital Economy on Innovation: New Evidence from Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. He, Hongbo & Chen, Yiqing & Wan, Hong & Yao, Shujie, 2023. "Possibility versus feasibility: International portfolio diversification under financial liberalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Chhibber, Ajay, 2021. "India's Interventionist State: Reduce Its Scope and Increase Its Capability," MPRA Paper 105711, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2021.
    7. Ajay Chhibber, 2021. "India's Interventionist State: Reduce Its Scope and Improve Its Capability," Working Papers 2021-02, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Ayşegül Durucan, 2023. "New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2243-2296, August.
    3. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2012. "Economic growth and the optimum size of government in 15 European countries: A threshold panel approach," MPRA Paper 39616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mehdi Hajamini & Mohammad Ali Falahi, 2014. "The nonlinear impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from low and low-middle income countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    6. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    7. Pelin Varol Iyidogan & Taner Turan, 2017. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 142-154.
    8. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal & Abhay Jain, 2021. "Government Size and Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of Selected Emerging Economies," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-39, June.
    9. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 307-321.
    10. Zareen, Shumaila & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "An Analysis of the Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 56139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pula Lekë & Elshani Alban, 2018. "Role of Public Expenditure in Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from Kosovo 2002–2015," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 74-87, June.
    12. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Wei Kong & Wenxiu Hu & Kaicheng Liao & Xiaoqiang Ma, 2021. "Local Financing Platform Loan and Performance of City Commercial Banks: Evidence from City Commercial Banks in China," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 238(3), pages 81-99, September.
    15. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The optimum size of public education spending: panel data evidence," MPRA Paper 106847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    17. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    18. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    19. Fallahi, Firouz & Montazeri Shoorkchali, Jalal, 2012. "Government size and economic growth in Greece: A smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 74078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shanaka Herath, 2012. "Size Of Government And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 7-30, July - Se.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Optimum government size; Panel threshold regression; Indian states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:88:y:2020:i:c:p:151-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.