Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions
AbstractWe develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to forecast the Italian population, using scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi in its series Working Papers with number 033.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- F. C. Billari & R. Graziani & E. Melilli, 2012. "Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(2), pages 491-511, 04.
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2010-11-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-ORE-2010-11-13 (Operations Research)
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- Matteo Gomellini & Cormac O' Grada, 2011. "Outward and Inward Migrations in Italy: A Historical Perspective," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 08, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gianni Corsetti & Marco Marsili, 2013. "Previsioni stocastiche della popolazione nell’ottica di un Istituto Nazionale di Statistica," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(2-3), pages 5-29.
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