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Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

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  • Francesco C. Billari
  • Rebecca Graziani
  • Eugenio Melilli

Abstract

We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to forecast the Italian population, using scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT).

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File URL: ftp://ftp.dondena.unibocconi.it/WorkingPapers/Dondena_WP033.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi in its series Working Papers with number 033.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:don:donwpa:033

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Related research

Keywords: stochastic population forecasting; random scenario; conditional expert opinions; Italian population forecasts;

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Gomellini & Cormac O' Grada, 2011. "Outward and Inward Migrations in Italy: A Historical Perspective," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 08, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Gianni Corsetti & Marco Marsili, 2013. "Previsioni stocastiche della popolazione nell’ottica di un Istituto Nazionale di Statistica," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(2-3), pages 5-29.

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