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Austerity and Private Debt

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  • Mathias Klein

Abstract

This study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust to alternative definitions of private debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. I show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt-dependent effects of austerity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Klein, 2016. "Austerity and Private Debt," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1611, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1611
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.545193.de/dp1611.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Mathias & Winkler, Roland, 2019. "Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    2. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.
    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    4. Mathias Klein, 2018. "What Determines the Costs of Fiscal Consolidations?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 120, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Private debt; Local projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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