IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v94y2021icp580-597.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies

Author

Listed:
  • Petrović, Pavle
  • Arsić, Milojko
  • Nojković, Aleksandra

Abstract

Using Local projections and a Panel Structural Vector Auto-Regressive model, we evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the Central and East European EU economies. We find that an increase in public investment has a strong positive effect on output, employment, wages and consumption during periods of economic downturn. Deficit-financed public investment does not increase the debt-to-GDP ratio and is essentially self-financed. In contrast, an increase in public consumption has little impact on economic activity and increases the debt-to-GDP ratio. The observed short term effects concur with a neo-Keynesian pattern suggesting that increase in public investment boosts the demand for labor in the private sector, leading to higher real wages and higher consumption. In the medium term, an increase in public investment enhances private investment thus generating supply side effect. We conclude that public investment can be an important policy instrument for combatting recessions and stimulating long-run growth, since monetary policy has run out of steam.

Suggested Citation

  • Petrović, Pavle & Arsić, Milojko & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2021. "Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 580-597.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:94:y:2021:i:c:p:580-597
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999319306698
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 409-430, April.
    3. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    5. Vetlov, Igor & Ferdinandusse, Marien & de Jong, Jasper & Funda, Josip, 2017. "The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment," Working Paper Series 2021, European Central Bank.
    6. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    7. Eden, Maya & Kraay, Aart, 2014. ""Crowding in"and the returns to government investment in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6781, The World Bank.
    8. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander & Verbič, Miroslav, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 448-461.
    9. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    10. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Lavinia Mustea & Thierry Yogo, 2016. "Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 108-127, January.
    11. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    12. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    13. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    15. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    16. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    17. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal multipliers: new evidence from a large panel of countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 569-590.
    18. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    19. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    20. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 446-465.
    21. Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Policy instruments to avoid output collapse: an optimal control model for India," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 761-776.
    22. Ali Mohammad Alichi & Ippei Shibata & Kadir Tanyeri, 2022. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 69-114, June.
    23. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2012. "Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, And Labor Force Participation: Theory And Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1205-1228, November.
    24. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    26. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2013/067, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Jha, Shikha & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Park, Donghyun & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2014. "Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Evidence from developing Asia," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 82-98.
    28. Sushanta Mallick, 2001. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment with Growth: Some Simulation Results," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 115-139.
    29. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    30. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 129-134, May.
    31. Valerie Ramey & Sarah Zubairy & Michael Owyang, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data," 2013 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    2. Fangfang Liu & Zheng Ma & Ziqing Wang & Shaobo Xie, 2022. "Trade-Off between COVID-19 Pandemic Prevention and Control and Economic Stimulus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Growth with Public and Foreign Investment in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03241846, HAL.
    4. BĂTUȘARU Cristina Maria & SBÂRCEA Ioana Raluca, 2023. "Security In The Context Of Sustainability: The Implications On Defence Expenditures," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 48-66, August.
    5. Ji, Xiangfeng & Chen, Xueqi & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Sustainable energy goals and investment premium: Evidence from renewable and conventional equity mutual funds in the Euro zone," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Spending in Research and Development: An Initial Exploration for G7 and 15 Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Fatih Chellai, 2021. "What can SVAR models tell us about the impact of Public Expenditure Shocks on macroeconomic variables in algeria? A Slight Hint to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(2), pages 21-37, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    4. Bijie Jia & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2015. "Government Spending Shocks and Private Acitivity: The Role of Sentiments," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    5. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    7. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    9. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    10. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign [Downward Wage Rigidity and Business Cycle Asymmetries]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
    11. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    12. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    13. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Glocker, Christian & Sestieri, Giulia & Towbin, Pascal, 2019. "Time-varying government spending multipliers in the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    16. Cem Çebi & K.Azim Özdemir, 2021. "Cyclical variation of the fiscal multiplier in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 495-509, January.
    17. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    18. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    19. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Iwata, Yasuharu & Kajita, Yuto & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers Identified by Systematic Component: A Bayesian Approach to TVP-SVAR model," MPRA Paper 92631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Public investment; Stabilisation policy; Keynesian vs. neoclassical view of fiscal policy; Emerging EU economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:94:y:2021:i:c:p:580-597. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.