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North-South Convergence and the Allocation of CO2 Emissions

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  • Humberto Llavador

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • John E. Roemer

    ()
    (Dept. of Political Science, Yale University)

  • Joaquim Silvestre

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

Mankind must cooperate to reduce GHG emissions to prevent a catastrophic rise in global temperature. How can the necessary costs of reducing GHG emissions be allocated across regions of the world, within the next few generations, and simultaneously address growth expectations and economic development? We postulate a two-region world and, based on sustainability and egalitarian criteria, calculate optimal paths in which a South, like China, and a North, like the United States, converge in welfare per capita to a path of sustained growth of 1% per year by 2080, while global CO2 emissions are restricted to the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP3-PD scenario: a conservative path that leads to the stabilization of concentrations under 450 ppm CO2, providing an expected temperature change not exceeding 2C. Growth expectations in the North and the South must be scaled back substantially, not only after 2080, but also in the transition period. Global negotiations to restrict emissions to an acceptably low level cannot succeed absent such an understanding. Feasible growth paths with low levels of emissions require heavy investments in education and knowledge. Northern and Southern growth must be restricted to 1% and 2.8% per year, respectively, over the next 75 years. Politicians who wish to solve the global-warming problem must prepare their polities to accept this reality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1932.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1932

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Keywords: Climate change; Sustainability; North-South convergence; International negotiations;

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  1. Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre & Joaquim Silvestre, 2009. "A Dynamic Analysis Of Human Welfare In A Warming Planet”," Working Papers 95, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-70, August.
  3. Yan Wang & Yudong Yao, 2001. "Sources of China's economic growth, 1952-99 : incorporating human capital accumulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2650, The World Bank.
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