Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression under Weak Identification
AbstractAn asymptotic theory is developed for a weakly identified cointegrating regression model in which the regressor is a nonlinear transformation of an integrated process. Weak identification arises from the presence of a loading coefficient for the nonlinear function that may be close to zero. In that case, standard nonlinear cointegrating limit theory does not provide good approximations to the finite sample distributions of nonlinear least squares estimators, resulting in potentially misleading inference. A new local limit theory is developed that approximates the finite sample distributions of the estimators uniformly well irrespective of the strength of the identification. An important technical component of this theory involves new results showing the uniform weak convergence of sample covariances involving nonlinear functions to mixed normal and stochastic integral limits. Based on these asymptotics, we construct confidence intervals for the loading coefficient and the nonlinear transformation parameter and show that these confidence intervals have correct asymptotic size. As in other cases of nonlinear estimation with integrated processes and unlike stationary process asymptotics, the properties of the nonlinear transformations affect the asymptotics and, in particular, give rise to parameter dependent rates of convergence and differences between the limit results for integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1768.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometric Theory (June 2012), 28(3): 509-547
Note: CFP 1355.
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Other versions of this item:
- Shi, Xiaoxia & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2012. "Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 509-547, June.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-09-25 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-09-25 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-ORE-2010-09-25 (Operations Research)
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