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Subjectivity in Inductive Inference

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Author Info
Itzhak Gilboa (Tel Aviv University)
Larry Samuelson () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider a game in which Fate chooses a data generating process and agents are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate subjective considerations. The basic intuition is that agents who invoke no subjective considerations are doomed to "overfit" the data and therefore engage in ineffective learning. The analysis places no computational or memory limitations on the agents -- the role for subjectivity emerges in the presence of unlimited reasoning powers.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d17a/d1725.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1725.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1725

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Induction; Simplicity; Bayesian learning;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

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  1. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.


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