A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain
AbstractThis paper looks at projections for the Spanish population by sex and age for the period of 2005 to 2050. These were carried out using forecasts for birth and mortality rates, and migration. These rates are calculated using two main sources of information. First, a multivariate time series model was applied for the series of variables from the 1970 to 2001 period. Second a model was estimated for life expectancy and for a synthetic fertility index. Both sources of information were combined to obtain the forecasts for the rates. Immigration rates are predicted by assuming three possible scenarios based on the maximum proportion that immigrants will represent in the Spanish population. With these variables a structure of ages and sex for the Spanish population is estimated using a cohort component model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws084512.
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
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Population projections; Time series; Factorial model; Bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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