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Bayesian Inference for the Mover-Stayer Model in Continuous Time with an Application to Labour Market Transition Data

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  • Denis Fougère

    (Crest)

  • Thierry Kamionka

    (Crest)

Abstract

This paper presents Bayesian inference procedures for the continuous time mover-stayer model applied to labour market transition data collected in discrete time. These methods allow us to derive the probability of embeddability of the discrete-time modelling with the continuous-time one. A special emphasis is put on two alternative procedures, namely the importance sampling algorithm and a new Gibbs sampling algorithm. Transition intensities, proportions of stayers and functions of these parameters are then estimated with the Gibbs sampling algorithm for individual transition data coming from the French Labour Force Surveys collected over the period 1986-2000. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2002-23.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2002-23

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  1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
  2. Thierry Kamionka, 1998. "Simulated maximum likelihood estimation in transition models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C129-C153.
  3. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
  4. van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1980. "Further experience in Bayesian analysis using Monte Carlo integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 307-328, December.
  5. Light, Audrey & Ureta, Manuelita, 1992. "Panel Estimates of Male and Female Job Turnover Behavior: Can Female Nonquitters Be Identified?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(2), pages 156-81, April.
  6. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Exact Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chain Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 653-69, August.
  7. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240.
  8. Chib, Siddhartha, 1992. "Bayes inference in the Tobit censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-99.
  9. Van Dijk, Herman K. & Kloek, Teun & Boender, C. Guus E., 1985. "Posterior moments computed by mixed integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-18.
  10. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. John Geweke, 1991. "Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments," Staff Report 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
  13. Gottschalk, Peter & Moffitt, Robert, 1999. "Changes in Job Instability and Insecurity Using Monthly Survey Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S91-126, October.
  14. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
  15. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1978. "Discrete Parameter Variation: Efficient Estimation of a Switching Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 427-34, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Buchinsky, Moshe & Fougère, Denis & Kramarz, Francis & Tchernis, Rusty, 2005. "Interfirm Mobility, Wages, and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 1521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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