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Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Vitek, Francis

Abstract

This paper analyzes past and possible future spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis, both within the Euro Area and to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into fifteen national economies. We find that macroeconomic and financial market spillovers have been small outside of countries with high trade or financial exposures, but that they could become large if severe financial stress were to spread beyond Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Vitek, Francis, 2011. "Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8497
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    4. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    5. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 2009/238, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "How Are Interbank and Sovereign Debt Markets Linked? Evidence from 14 OECD Countries, the Euro Area and Russia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 331-348, June.
    2. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Integration of European bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 191-198.
    3. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Andreas Jobst & Ms. Li L Ong & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing: Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs," IMF Working Papers 2013/068, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Nassim N. Taleb & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Elie Canetti, 2012. "A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/216, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Heiko Hesse & Mr. Ferhan Salman & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 2014/103, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Euro area sovereign debt crisis; Panel unobserved components model; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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