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Risk Transfer with CDOs and Systemic Risk in Banking

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  • Krahnen, Jan Pieter
  • Wilde, Christian

Abstract

Large banks often sell part of their loan portfolio in the form of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) to investors. In this paper we raise the question whether credit asset securitization affects the cyclicality (or commonality) of bank equity values. The commonality of bank equity values reflects a major component of systemic risks in the banking market, caused by correlated defaults of loans in the banks' loan books. Our simulations take into account the major stylized fact of CDO\ transactions, the non-proportional nature of risk sharing that goes along with tranching. We provide a theoretical framework for the risk transfer through securitization that builds on a macro risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor, allowing an identification of the types of risk that the individual tranche holders bear. This allows conclusions about the risk positions of issuing banks after risk transfer. Building on the strict subordination of tranches, we first evaluate the correlation properties both within and across risk classes. We then determine the effect of securitization on the systematic risk of all tranches, and derive its effect on the issuing bank's equity beta. The simulation results show that under plausible assumptions concerning bank reinvestment behavior and capital structure choice, the issuing intermediary's systematic risk tends to rise. We discuss the implications of our findings for financial stability supervision.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5618.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5618

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Keywords: risk transfer; systematic risk; systemic risk;

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References

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  1. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Til Schuermann, 2004. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Staff Reports 185, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Franke, Günter & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2005. "Default risk sharing between banks and markets: The contribution of collateralized debt obligations," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Marquez, 2009. "Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/08, European University Institute.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. G.G. Kaufman, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk: A Taxonomy and Review," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 48, Netherlands Central Bank.
  8. Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
  9. Greenbaum, Stuart I. & Thakor, Anjan V., 1987. "Bank funding modes : Securitization versus deposits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-401, September.
  10. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fender, Ingo & Mitchell, Janet, 2009. "Incentives and Tranche Retention in Securitisation: A Screening Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Brigitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Kiel Working Papers 1489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Di Cesare, Antonio, 2009. "Securitization and Bank Stability," MPRA Paper 16831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological Change, Financial Innovation, and Diffusion in Banking," Working Papers 09-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Ongena, Steven, 2011. "Securitization and lending standards: evidence from the wholesale loan market," Working Paper Series 1362, European Central Bank.
  6. Hallak, Issam, 2009. "Renegotiation and the pricing structure of sovereign bank loans: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-103, January.
  7. Battaglia, Francesca & Gallo, Angela, 2013. "Securitization and systemic risk: An empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 274-286.
  8. Deming Wu & Jiawen Yang & Han Hong, 2011. "Securitization and Banks’ Equity Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 95-117, June.
  9. Lin, Justin Yifu & Treichel, Volker, 2012. "The crisis in the Euro zone : did the euro contribute to the evolution of the crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6127, The World Bank.
  10. Scholz, Julia, 2009. "Collateralized Debt Obligations: Anreizprobleme im Rahmen des Managements von CDOs," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 11002, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
  11. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Marques-Ibanez, David & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2012. "Securitization, risk-transferring and financial instability: The case of Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 80-101.

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