Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach
AbstractRapid trade liberalization is often followed by a decline in private savings, although permanent changes in trade policy do not affect intertemporal prices and should thus leave private savings unaffected. But a positive probability of future policy reversal lowers the consumption rate of interest and thus will increase current consumption. Furthermore, to separate the impact of shifts in intertemporal relative prices and of risk aversion, we use the Ordinal Certainty Equivalence approach. We establish that trade policy uncertainty per se will further reduce savings if: (a) there is positive risk aversion; (b) the intertemporal substitution elasticity exceeds one.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 441.
Date of creation: Aug 1990
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1992. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty, and the Current Account: A Non-Expected-Utility Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 626-33, June.
- Van Wijnbergen, S., 1991. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach," Papers 9148, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Wijnbergen, S. van, 1991. "Trade reform, policy uncertainty and the current account: A non-expected utility approach," Discussion Paper 1991-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hall, Robert E, 1988.
"Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
- Selden, Larry, 1978. "A New Representation of Preferences over "Certain A Uncertain" Consumption Pairs: The "Ordinal Certainty Equivalent" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1045-60, September.
- Sebastian Edwards & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1983.
"The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization: Consequences of Different Sequencing Scenarios,"
NBER Working Papers
1245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards & Sweder Van Wijnbergen, 1983. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization: Consequences of Different Sequencing Scenarios," UCLA Economics Working Papers 313, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, D., 1990.
"Trade Policies And Development: Some New Issues,"
181d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
- Diamond, Peter A. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1974. "Increases in risk and in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 337-360, July.
- Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February.
- Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit & Kallianiotis, Ioannis, 2001. "Interest rate risk, labor supply and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
- Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit, 2001. "Tax rate uncertainty, labor supply and saving in a nonexpected utility maximizing model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 49-68.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.