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Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks

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  • Weber, Andrea
  • Bardits, Anna
  • Adamecz, Anna
  • Bisztray, Márta
  • Szabo-Morvai, Agnes

Abstract

We study fertility responses to employment shocks. Using unique Hungarian administrative data that allow linking firm-level mass layoff and closure events to individual-level records on births and abortions, we show that the main response happens in anticipation of the shock. Responses differ by the availability of dismissal protection. While pregnancies increase in anticipation of all events, births only rise in case of mass layoffs when pregnant women are protected from layoffs. If the firm closes protection is lost and we find an increase in abortions. We interpret these results as evidence for precautionary fertility behavior. Women threatened by job displacement bring births forward to exploit dismissal protection, a strategy that breaks down if the firm closes permanently.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Andrea & Bardits, Anna & Adamecz, Anna & Bisztray, Márta & Szabo-Morvai, Agnes, 2023. "Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17988
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Abortion; Pregnancy; Mass layoff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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