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Stabilisation et relance macroéconomiques post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC : Quels instruments pour quels effets dans un modèle DSGE ?

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  • Mvondo, Thierry

Abstract

Ce papier s’intéresse à l’efficacité des mesures de stabilisation puis de relance macroéconomique post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC. A cet effet, un modèle DSGE est construit, prenant en compte les spécificités de la zone dont particulièrement une banque centrale appelée à assouplir ses conditions monétaires et, l’Etat creusant son déficit à travers l’émission de titres domestiques et étrangers ainsi que des allègements/exonérations fiscaux. Dans ce cadre, la COVID-19 est modélisée comme un processus autorégressif impactant directement certaines variables et, indirectement d’autres à travers le principe de chocs corrélés. Les simulations menées montrent que : (i) la modélisation retenue de la COVID-19 permet de répliquer les effets postulés de cette dernière dans la CEMAC ; (ii) les mesures budgétaires, quoique plus efficaces par rapport aux mesures monétaires et macroprudentielles pourraient avoir des effets distorsifs sur certaines variables financières et ; (iii) les effets obtenus prendraient 30 trimestres environ pour se réaliser complètement.

Suggested Citation

  • Mvondo, Thierry, 2021. "Stabilisation et relance macroéconomiques post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC : Quels instruments pour quels effets dans un modèle DSGE ?," Dynare Working Papers 65, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:065
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    2. Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri & Badjeck Mvondo, Laureine, 2023. "Impact de la guerre russo-ukrainienne sur le cours des produits de base exportés par les pays de la CEMAC," Dynare Working Papers 79, CEPREMAP.

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    Keywords

    Choc COVID-19; Stabilisation; Relance macroéconomique; DSGE; CEMAC;
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