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Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy

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  • Merkl, Christian
  • Faia, Ester
  • Lechthaler, Wolfgang

Abstract

Several contributions have recently assessed the size of fiscal multipliers both in RBC models and New Keynesian models. None of the studies considers a model with frictional labour markets which is a crucial element, particularly at times in which much of the fiscal stimulus has been directed toward labour market measures. We use an open economy model (more specifically a currency area calibrated on the EMU) with labour market frictions in the form of labour turnover costs and workers' heterogeneity to measure fiscal multipliers. We compute short and long run multipliers and open economy spillovers for five types of fiscal packages: pure demand stimuli and consumption tax cuts return very small multipliers; income tax cut and hiring subsidies deliver larger multipliers as they reduce distortions in sclerotic labour markets; short-time work (German Kurzarbeit) returns negative short-run multipliers, but stabilises employment. Our model highlights a novel dimension through which multipliers operate, namely the labour demand stimulus which occurs in a model with non-walrasian labour markets. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy with number 37509.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:37509

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Keywords: fiscal multipliers; fiscal packages; labour market frictions;

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References

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  1. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78 - 121.
  2. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  5. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Robert Shimer, 2007. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Cwik, Tobias J. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the Euro area," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/25, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  13. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Working Paper Series 1090, European Central Bank.
  14. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Monetary Persistence and the Labor Market: A New Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3513, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Wilke, Ralf A., 2004. "New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-26, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2005. "Non-Wage Labour Costs, Policy Uncertainty And Labour Demand - A Theoretical Assessment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(5), pages 687-709, November.
  18. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
  19. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs, Workers' Heterogeneity, and Optimal Monetary Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 4322, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2011. "Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Labor Market Frictions," MNB Working Papers 2011/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Ekkehard Ernst & Uma Rani, 2011. "Understanding unemployment flows," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 268-294.
  3. Roland Winkler & Alexander Totzek, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Business Cycle Model with Firm Entry," 2011 Meeting Papers 140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Totzek, Alexander & Winkler, Roland C., 2010. "Fiscal stimulus in model with endogenous firm entry," MPRA Paper 26829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
  5. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2013. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," IMF Working Papers 13/17, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Dieter Hundt & Frank-Jürgen Weise & Hagen Lesch & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2012. "Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 03-13, 01.
  7. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Bo, 2012. "A fiscal stimulus with deep habits and optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 348-353.
  8. Charl Jooste & Guangling "Dave" Liu & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2012. "Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy," Working Papers 201206, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2010. "Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Matching Frictions," Kiel Working Papers 1602, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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